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Management of the risk of wind damage in forestry: a graph-based Markov decision process approach

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  • Nicklas Forsell
  • Peder Wikström
  • Frédérick Garcia
  • Régis Sabbadin
  • Kristina Blennow
  • Ljusk Eriksson

Abstract

This study deals with the problem of including the risk of wind damage in long-term forestry management. A model based on Graph-Based Markov Decision Processes (GMDP) is suggested for development of silvicultural management policies. The model can both take stochastic wind events into account and be applied to forest estates containing a large number of stands. The model is demonstrated for a forest estate in southern Sweden. Treatment of the stands according to the management policy specified by the GMDP model increased the expected net present value (NPV) of the whole forest only slightly, less than 2%, under different wind-risk assumptions. Most of the stands were managed in the same manner as when the risk of wind damage was not considered. For the stands that were treated differently, however, the expected NPV increased by 3% to 8%. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Nicklas Forsell & Peder Wikström & Frédérick Garcia & Régis Sabbadin & Kristina Blennow & Ljusk Eriksson, 2011. "Management of the risk of wind damage in forestry: a graph-based Markov decision process approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 190(1), pages 57-74, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:190:y:2011:i:1:p:57-74:10.1007/s10479-009-0522-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-009-0522-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martins, Isabel & Constantino, Miguel & Borges, Jose G., 2005. "A column generation approach for solving a non-temporal forest harvest model with spatial structure constraints," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 478-498, March.
    2. Hartman, Richard, 1976. "The Harvesting Decision When a Standing Forest Has Value," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(1), pages 52-58, March.
    3. Eldon A. Gunn, 2007. "Models for Strategic Forest Management," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Andres Weintraub & Carlos Romero & Trond Bjørndal & Rafael Epstein & Jaime Miranda (ed.), Handbook Of Operations Research In Natural Resources, chapter 0, pages 317-341, Springer.
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    1. Couture, Stéphane & Cros, Marie-Josée & Sabbadin, Régis, 2016. "Risk aversion and optimal management of an uneven-aged forest under risk of windthrow: A Markov decision process approach," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 94-114.
    2. Ran Wei & Alan Murray, 2015. "Spatial uncertainty in harvest scheduling," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 232(1), pages 275-289, September.

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