Did the CDS Market Push up Risk Premia for Sovereign Credit?
We examine the empirical relationship between credit default swap (CDS) premia and government bond spreads for Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain (the 'PIIGS' countries). We find some evidence for a long-run relationship in the sense of cointegration for the two markets. In most cases (five out of seven), only CDS premia contribute to the price discovery process. In the other cases, both markets make a more or less equal contribution. All in all, this suggests that bond spreads react only sluggishly to long-term imbalances, as measured by the cointegrating relationship. In light of this, we can conclude that, in most cases, CDS markets are leading markets if there is a long-run relationship between the CDS and gov-ernment bond spread markets. This may partly be due to liquidity effects.
Volume (Year): 147 (2011)
Issue (Month): III (September)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: c/o SNB/BNS, Börsenstrasse 15, PO Box 2800, CH-8022 Zürich|
Phone: +41 (0)44 631 32 34
Fax: +41 (0)44 631 39 01
Web page: http://www.sjes.ch
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Duffie, D., 2010. "Is there a case for banning short speculation in sovereign bond markets?," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 14, pages 55-59, July.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010.
"Growth in a Time of Debt,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011.
"How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
- Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992.
"Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems,"
4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements,"
NBER Working Papers
7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Craig S. Hakkio & Mark Rush, 1990.
"Cointegration: how short is the long run?,"
Research Working Paper
90-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Stulz, Rene M., 2009.
"Credit Default Swaps and the Credit Crisis,"
Working Paper Series
2009-16, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
- Sergio Andenmatten & Felix Brill, 2011. "Measuring Co-Movements of CDS Premia during the Greek Debt Crisis," Diskussionsschriften dp1104, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
- Stulz, Rene, 2010. "Credit default Swaps and the Credit Crisis," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 157-175.
- Haibin Zhu, 2006. "An Empirical Comparison of Credit Spreads between the Bond Market and the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 211-235, June.
- Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment-Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2255-2281, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2011-iii-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Steiner)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.