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Did the CDS Market Push up Risk Premia for Sovereign Credit?

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  • Sergio Andenmatten
  • Felix Brill

Abstract

We examine the empirical relationship between credit default swap (CDS) premia and government bond spreads for Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain (the 'PIIGS' countries). We find some evidence for a long-run relationship in the sense of cointegration for the two markets. In most cases (five out of seven), only CDS premia contribute to the price discovery process. In the other cases, both markets make a more or less equal contribution. All in all, this suggests that bond spreads react only sluggishly to long-term imbalances, as measured by the cointegrating relationship. In light of this, we can conclude that, in most cases, CDS markets are leading markets if there is a long-run relationship between the CDS and gov-ernment bond spread markets. This may partly be due to liquidity effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Andenmatten & Felix Brill, 2011. "Did the CDS Market Push up Risk Premia for Sovereign Credit?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 147(III), pages 275-302, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2011-iii-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge M. Andraz & Cristina M. Viegas & Nélia M. Norte, 2016. "On the relationship between sovereign bonds and credit default swaps in Portugal," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 18-36, March.
    2. Büchel, Konstantin, 2013. "Do words matter? The impact of communication on the PIIGS' CDS and bond yield spreads during Europe's sovereign debt crisis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 412-431.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Greek debt crisis; sovereign credit; CDS market; price discovery;

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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