De la (non-)soutenabilité des politiques budgétaires en Suisse

This paper applies to Switzerland an indicator of the sustainability of fiscal policies developed by BLANCHARD and others for the OECD. A fiscal policy is sustainable if it stabilizes the debt/GDP ratio over a certain period of time; thus, the primary surplus must cover the interest payments on the debt which exceed the growth rate of the economy. We calculate the adjustment required to stabilize the debt/GDP ratio, knowing the forecasts on revenues, spending, interest rates and growth for a given time horizon. The fiscal policy of the Swiss public sector was "too sustainable" in the 80's: taxes could have been lowered, or spending increased. On the contrary, it is unsustainable from 1990 to 2000: taxes should bee raised or spending reduced to prevent the rapid growth of the debt/GDP ratio. From 1996 to 2000, the public sector should increase taxes or reduce spending by 0.2% of GDP in order to stabilize the debt ratio at 49.6% of GDP. But since this adjustment will not fully take place, the debt ratio will only be stabilized in 2000 at the higher level of 53.2%. Although the indicator of sustainability is largely an accounting measure, we believe it provides a simple and useful benchmark for assessing fiscal policies.