A Combined Approach To Access Short Term Changes In Economic Activity Of Portugal And Spain
This paper proposes a different method to identify short term changes in economic activity. We use an approach based on the opinions of several reputable Portuguese and Spanish economists about the importance of a set of individual indicators, which are generally agreed to provide an assessment of the economic activity. The purpose of this paper is to determine the relative economic position over a particular period of time in relation to a short/medium term time horizon and to analyze the importance of the opinion of the economist in the characterization of the economic activity. Trimestral data covering the period from 1995 to 2014 (1st semester) was collected using statistics provided by the OECD.StatExtracts for Portugal, and Spain were considered. The results support the idea that the opinions of the economists are important for the characterization of an economy. Although their opinions about the weight of a particular variable in characterization of the level of the economic activity may vary, implicitly, in the long term, all the opinions tend to converge to the same pattern of an economic activity evolution.
Volume (Year): 24 (2015)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Avda Xoan XXIII S/N, 15704 Santiago de Compostela|
Web page: http://www.usc.es/econo/RGE/benvidag.htm
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sebastian Dellepiane & Niamh Hardiman, 2013. "The politics of fiscal effort in Spain and Ireland: Market credibility versus political legitimacy," Working Papers 201321, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
- Valle e Azevedo, João & Pereira, Ana, 2013.
"Approximating and forecasting macroeconomic signals in real-time,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 479-492.
- João Valle e Azevedo & Ana Pereira, 2008. "Approximating and Forecasting Macroeconomic Signals in Real-Time," Working Papers w200819, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Kanayo Kingsley Ogujiuba & Kizito Ehigiamusoe, 2014. "Capital Budget Implementation in Nigeria: Evidence from the 2012 Capital Budget," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 8(3), September.
- Marc Lavoie, 2015. "The Eurozone: Similitudes and differences with Keynes's Plan," IMK Working Paper 145-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
- Yiannis Kitromilides, 2011. "Deficit reduction, the age of austerity, and the paradox of insolvency," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 33(3), pages 517-536, April.
- Michel Husson, 2015. "Unemployment, working time and financialisation: the French case," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 887-905.
- Greg Hannsgen, 2012. "A Brief Guide to the US Stimulus and Austerity Debates," Economics One-Pager Archive op_35, Levy Economics Institute.
- Cochrane, John H., 2011. "Understanding policy in the great recession: Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 2-30, January.
- John H. Cochrane, 2010. "Understanding Policy in the Great Recession: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic," NBER Working Papers 16087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Valle e Azevedo, Joao & Koopman, Siem Jan & Rua, Antonio, 2006. "Tracking the Business Cycle of the Euro Area: A Multivariate Model-Based Bandpass Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 278-290, July.
- Gordon Brady, 2015. "Austerity in the European Union: Keynesian Stimulus versus Fiscal Consolidation," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 55-65, March.
- Blyth, Mark, 2013. "Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199828302.
- Konzelmann, S., 2012. "The Economics of Austerity," Working Papers wp434, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
- Alfredo Calcagno, 2012. "Can austerity work?," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 1(0), pages 24-36.
- João Valle e Azevedo, 2007. "A Multivariate Band-Pass Filter," Working Papers w200717, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Valle e Azevedo, João, 2008. "A Multivariate Band-Pass Filter," MPRA Paper 6555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Collins, Alan, 2014. "The impact of fiscal austerity on suicide: On the empirics of a modern Greek tragedy," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 39-50. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sdo:regaec:v:24:y:2015:i:2_8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ana Iglesias Casal)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.