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A Two-stage Housing Choice Forecasting Model

Author

Listed:
  • Yong Tu

    (Centre for Housing Research and Urban Studies, University of Glasgow, 25 Bute Gardens, Glasgow, G12 8RT, Scotland, UK)

  • Judy Goldfinch

    (Department of Mathematics, Napier University, 219 Colinton Road, Edinburgh EH14 1DT, Scotland, UK)

Abstract

A new housing choice forecasting model is developed here to answer a practical question: how to forecast housing demand at a disaggregate level. Being different from the previous housing choice models, this model is derived from housing sub-market structure based on a random utility approach. Housing choice is thought to be a joint choice of all the components associated with a dwelling, These components create a huge bundle of dwelling alternatives resulting in an empirical calculation problem. To avoid this problem, the model developed in this paper separates the joint choice behaviour into two stages: the choices of the key dwelling components which construct the housing sub-markets and the choices of the non-key dwelling components which distinguish individual dwellings in each housing sub-market. Some policy simulations are presented based on this model.

Suggested Citation

  • Yong Tu & Judy Goldfinch, 1996. "A Two-stage Housing Choice Forecasting Model," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 33(3), pages 517-537, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:33:y:1996:i:3:p:517-537
    DOI: 10.1080/00420989650011898
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 132-132.
    2. Turnbull, Geoffrey K. & Sirmans, C. F., 1993. "Information, search, and house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 545-557, September.
    3. Quigley, John M., 1985. "Consumer choice of dwelling, neighborhood and public services," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 41-63, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Shuhong & Kockelman, Kara M., 2016. "Welfare Measures to Reflect Home Location Options When Transportation Systems Are Modified," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 55(1), April.

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