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The differential impact of origin and destination country uncertainty on international tourism

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  • Soonchan Park

Abstract

This study examines the impact of uncertainty in both origin and destination countries on international tourism demand, utilizing a gravity model with panel data from 60 countries covering the period from 1995 to 2018. The paper highlights that uncertainty in destination countries significantly reduces tourism exports. Additionally, it investigates the importance of similarity and relativity in uncertainty between countries, finding that smaller differences in uncertainty and lower relative uncertainty in destination countries boost tourism flows. The findings underscore the critical role of perceived stability and risk in shaping international tourism demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Soonchan Park, 2025. "The differential impact of origin and destination country uncertainty on international tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 31(7), pages 1465-1470, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:31:y:2025:i:7:p:1465-1470
    DOI: 10.1177/13548166251317656
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Chiang-Ming Chen & Kuo-Ting Hua & Jiin-Tian Chyou & Chih-Chung Tai, 2020. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on hotel room demand-evidence from Mainland Chinese and Japanese tourists in Taiwan," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(12), pages 1443-1448, June.
    3. Carolyn Chisadza & Matthew Clance & Rangan Gupta & Peter Wanke, 2022. "Uncertainty and tourism in Africa," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 964-978, June.
    4. Hites Ahir & Nicholas Bloom & Davide Furceri, 2022. "The world uncertainty index," POID Working Papers 031, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Su Dinh Thanh & Bach Nguyen, 2022. "Economic uncertainty and tourism consumption," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 920-941, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Park, Soonchan, 2025. "The impact of trade protectionism on tourism flows," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

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