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An Application of PAR Models for Tourism Forecasting

Author

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  • Paulo M.M. Rodrigues

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8000-117 Faro, Portugal)

  • Pedro M.D.C.B. Gouveia

    (University of Algarve, ESGHT, Largo Eng Sarrea Prado 21, 8500 Portimão, Portugal)

Abstract

This paper extends the existing literature on tourism forecasting by developing an application study based on periodic models. The need for this type of approach derives from the common procedure in tourism literature of classifying series into three seasons: peak, shoulder and off-peak. This classification is useful in identifying more parsimonious periodic models when compared with unrestricted periodic monthly models. The authors apply their proposed models on several tourism series collected and analysed from Portugal's southernmost province, Algarve. The economy of this region relies heavily on the tourism industry, catering largely for the European market. Besides statistically validating these models, the authors compare their forecasting ability with other models in the current literature. The results show that the models presented achieve a superior forecasting performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Pedro M.D.C.B. Gouveia, 2004. "An Application of PAR Models for Tourism Forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 281-303, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:10:y:2004:i:3:p:281-303
    DOI: 10.5367/0000000041895085
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wells, J. M., 1997. "Modelling seasonal patterns and long-run trends in U.S. time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-420, September.
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    7. Osborn, Denise R., 1991. "The implications of periodically varying coefficients for seasonal time-series processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 373-384, June.
    8. Sims,Christopher A. (ed.), 1994. "Advances in Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521444590.
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    Cited by:

    1. Khalid Khan & Chi-Wei Su & Yi-Dong Xiao & Haotian Zhu & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2021. "Trends in tourism under economic uncertainty," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 841-858, June.
    2. repec:ptu:bdpart:r201613 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Biljana Petrevska, 2014. "Measuring Seasonal Concentration Of Tourism Demand: Comparative Study Of See Countries," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 45-53, December.

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