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Estimating the Unknown Parameters of the Natural History of Metachronous Colorectal Cancer Using Discrete-Event Simulation

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  • Fatih Safa Erenay
  • Oguzhan Alagoz
  • Ritesh Banerjee
  • Robert R. Cima

Abstract

Objectives . Some aspects of the natural history of metachronous colorectal cancer (MCRC), such as the rate of progression from adenomatous polyp to MCRC, are unknown. The objective of this study is to estimate a set of parameters revealing some of these unknown characteristics of MCRC. Methods . The authors developed a computer simulation model that mimics the progression of MCRC for a 5-year period following the treatment of primary colorectal cancer (CRC). They obtained the inputs of the simulation model using longitudinal data for 284 CRC patients from the Mayo Clinic, Rochester. Results . Five-year MCRC incidence and all-cause mortality were 7.4% and 12.7% in the patient cohort, respectively. Statistical analysis showed that 5-year MCRC incidence was associated with gender ( P = 0.05), whereas both all-cause and CRC-related mortalities were associated with age ( P

Suggested Citation

  • Fatih Safa Erenay & Oguzhan Alagoz & Ritesh Banerjee & Robert R. Cima, 2011. "Estimating the Unknown Parameters of the Natural History of Metachronous Colorectal Cancer Using Discrete-Event Simulation," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 31(4), pages 611-624, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:31:y:2011:i:4:p:611-624
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X10391809
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sun Eric & Jena Anupam B & Lakdawalla Darius & Reyes Carolina & Philipson Tomas J & Goldman Dana, 2010. "The Contributions of Improved Therapy and Earlier Detection to Cancer Survival Gains, 1988-2000," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-22, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Franklin, Jessica M. & Schneeweiss, Sebastian & Polinski, Jennifer M. & Rassen, Jeremy A., 2014. "Plasmode simulation for the evaluation of pharmacoepidemiologic methods in complex healthcare databases," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 219-226.
    2. Fatih Safa Erenay & Oguzhan Alagoz & Adnan Said, 2014. "Optimizing Colonoscopy Screening for Colorectal Cancer Prevention and Surveillance," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 381-400, July.

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