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Trade Potential between India and Central Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Pradeep Agrawal

    (Pradeep Agrawal (deceased) was Professor, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi, India.)

  • Seema Sangita

    (Seema Sangita is Assistant Professor, TERI University, New Delhi, India, email: seemasangita@gmail.com)

Abstract

South–South bilateral trade partnerships have been growing increasingly important, and this article analyses the current patterns of bilateral trade between India and five Central Asian countries and the potential for improving them. We apply the gravity model of trade to construct a trade potential index from an Indian perspective and assess the potential for improving India’s trade with Central Asia. We find that the volume of trade between India and Central Asia in 2015 could be six to ten times greater than the actual volume. Political disturbances in the countries that fall along the direct trade route are a major barrier to trade in this region; therefore, we re-examine the potential for trade using alternate routes via Iran and China. We find that the potential for greater bilateral trade between India and Central Asia continues to be positive. JEL Classification: F10, F14

Suggested Citation

  • Pradeep Agrawal & Seema Sangita, 2017. "Trade Potential between India and Central Asia," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 11(4), pages 418-448, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:11:y:2017:i:4:p:418-448
    DOI: 10.1177/0973801017722268
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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