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Impacts of Tax and Flavor Tobacco Policies on San Francisco Bay Area Tobacco Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Vira Pravosud
  • Louisa M. Holmes
  • Lauren K. Lempert
  • Pamela M. Ling

Abstract

California Proposition 56 increased the state tobacco tax by $2 per cigarette pack effective April 1, 2017. Between 2015-2020 San Francisco (SF) and some cities in Alameda County enacted local flavored tobacco sales restrictions. SF also increased its Cigarette Litter Abatement Fee, from $0.20/pack in 2015 to $1.00 in 2020. Compare the change in tobacco prices before (2015) and after (2019/20) the implementation of a $2 increase in tobacco excise tax and local flavored tobacco policies in SF and Alameda Counties. Descriptive study of the pre-to-post policy analysis design. We drew a proportional random sample of retailers (N=463) in SF and Alameda Counties, by city. Using multivariable, single- and multiple-level linear regressions, we compared inflation-adjusted average tobacco prices in 2015 vs. 2019/20 by county and by flavor policy, accounting for socio-demographics. Change in inflation-adjusted average tobacco prices in 2015 vs. 2019/20 by county and flavor policy, accounting for socio-demographics. Between 2015-2019/20, the increase in cigarette prices was higher than the $2 tax increase, and higher in SF than Alameda County (+$4.6 vs +$2.5). SF retailers stopped selling Newport menthol cigarettes and Blu brand menthol e-cigarettes in 2019/20. Adjusted average cigarette prices increased significantly more in SF and Alameda County cities with comprehensive or partial flavor policies versus cities without flavor policies (by $3.23 and $2.11). Local flavor policies affected menthol product availability and may have had positive spillover effects and indirectly increased pack prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Vira Pravosud & Louisa M. Holmes & Lauren K. Lempert & Pamela M. Ling, 2023. "Impacts of Tax and Flavor Tobacco Policies on San Francisco Bay Area Tobacco Prices," Evaluation Review, , vol. 47(5), pages 763-785, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:evarev:v:47:y:2023:i:5:p:763-785
    DOI: 10.1177/0193841X231164908
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    References listed on IDEAS

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