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A Repeated Observation Approach for Estimating the Street Homeless Population

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  • Brent Berry

    (University of Toronto)

Abstract

Risks of life on the street caused by inclement weather, harassment, and assault threaten the unsheltered homeless population. We address some challenges of enumerating the street homeless population by testing a novel capture-recapture (CR) estimation approach that models individuals' intermittent daytime visibility. We tested walking and vehicle-based variants of CR in downtown Toronto in March. Estimates that assume individual variability of sighting probabilities are most consistent with our knowledge of the homeless and achieve the most favorable confidence intervals, estimated detection probabilities, and coefficient of variation. Estimation bias from interobserver discrepancies, duplicate counting, and violation of the closed population assumption were minimized with uniform identification criteria, training, and sampling design. Bias caused by the social grouping of the homeless was small. Despite the limitations of visual identification, CR approaches as part of a multiple-method program can aid community responses to immediate needs on the street, especially during the harsh winter months.

Suggested Citation

  • Brent Berry, 2007. "A Repeated Observation Approach for Estimating the Street Homeless Population," Evaluation Review, , vol. 31(2), pages 166-199, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:evarev:v:31:y:2007:i:2:p:166-199
    DOI: 10.1177/0193841X06296947
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Phelan, J.C. & Link, B.G., 1999. "Who are 'the homeless'? Reconsidering the stability and composition of the homeless population," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 89(9), pages 1334-1338.
    2. Beáta Dávid & Tom Snijders, 2002. "Estimating the Size of the Homeless Population in Budapest, Hungary," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 291-303, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Braga & L. Corno, 2011. "Being Homeless: Evidence from Italy," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 70(3), pages 33-73, December.
    2. A. M. Coumans & M. Cruyff & P. G. M. Heijden & J. Wolf & H. Schmeets, 2017. "Estimating Homelessness in the Netherlands Using a Capture-Recapture Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 189-212, January.
    3. Amelia Hoover Green & Patrick Ball, 2019. "Civilian killings and disappearances during civil war in El Salvador (1980‒1992)," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(27), pages 781-814.
    4. Lucia Corno, 2012. "Peer Effects on Criminal Behavior. Evidence from the homeless," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2012015, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.

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