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Problematising the ‘Orderly’ Aesthetic Assumptions of Forecasts of East–West Migration in the European Union

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  • Roos Pijpers

    (Department of Human Geography and Nijmegen Centre for Border Research, Radboud University Nijmegen, Thomas van Aquinostraat 3.2.24, PO Box 9108, 6500 HK Nijmegen, The Netherlands)

Abstract

This paper critically examines migration forecasts: numerical guesstimates of future patterns of migration flows. In the enlarging European Union, migration forecasts are often carried out upon requests from mass-migration-fearing policy makers. Most forecasts are based on key principles and working practices adhered to in neoclassical economics and spatial science—notably, equilibrium and place. Offering apparent numerical certainty, migration forecasts speak to a latent desire for aesthetic sociospatial order. Migration is considered a disequilibrium phenomenon, and linear movements and final destinations are presupposed. However, it is argued that these ‘orderly’ aesthetic assumptions do not correspond with ‘messy’ real East–West migration dynamics in the EU, which are foremost temporary and circulatory in nature. Drawing on evidence from the Netherlands, the paper concludes by suggesting that migration forecasts may indirectly strengthen claims for restrictive migration policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Roos Pijpers, 2008. "Problematising the ‘Orderly’ Aesthetic Assumptions of Forecasts of East–West Migration in the European Union," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 40(1), pages 174-188, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:40:y:2008:i:1:p:174-188
    DOI: 10.1068/a38251
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU enlargement and labour-force migration: Proposals for a gradual convergence of labour markets," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2.
    2. D Sibley, 1998. "Sensations and Spatial Science: Gratification and Anxiety in the Production of Ordered Landscapes," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 30(2), pages 235-246, February.
    3. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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