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Gold Prices, Exchange Rates, Gold Stocks and the Gold Premium

Author

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  • Garry Twite

    (Australian Graduate School of Management, UNSW, Sydney, NSW 2052. Email: gtwite@agsm.edu.au)

Abstract

This paper studies the exposure of the stock prices of Australian gold-mining firms to changes in gold prices and the valuation effects of gold price exposure. Gold-mining firms have significant gold price exposure; the price of the average gold-mining stock moves 0.76% for each 1.00% change in Australian-dollar-denominated gold prices. Evidence from the behaviour of stock price sensitivities suggests that gold-mining firms can be represented as a portfolio of gold assets and embedded real options. Simple discounted cash flow models systematically underestimate the price of gold stocks. The evidence suggests that the valuation error is due to both the failure of discounted cash flow models to reflect managerial flexibility that is embedded in the operation of gold mines and the misuse of discounted cash flow techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Garry Twite, 2002. "Gold Prices, Exchange Rates, Gold Stocks and the Gold Premium," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 27(2), pages 123-140, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ausman:v:27:y:2002:i:2:p:123-140
    DOI: 10.1177/031289620202700202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graham A. Davis, 1996. "Option Premiums in Mineral Asset Pricing: Are They Important?," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 72(2), pages 167-186.
    2. James L. Paddock & Daniel R. Siegel & James L. Smith, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xi Shen & Kanchana Chokethaworn & Chukiat Chaiboonsri, 2013. "The dependence structure analysis among gold price, stock price index of gold mining companies and Shanghai composite index," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(4), pages 53-64, December.
    2. Dirk G Baur, 2012. "An Empirical Analysis of Australian Gold Mining Firms," Working Paper Series 171, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    3. Wang, Kuan-Min & Lee, Yuan-Ming & Thi, Thanh-Binh Nguyen, 2011. "Time and place where gold acts as an inflation hedge: An application of long-run and short-run threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 806-819, May.
    4. Hong, Gwangheon & Sarkar, Sudipto, 2008. "Commodity betas with mean reverting output prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1286-1296, July.
    5. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Kosedag, Arman & Lucey, Brian M., 2017. "Is the price of gold to gold mining stocks asymmetric?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 402-407.
    6. Baur, Dirk G., 2014. "Gold mining companies and the price of gold," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 174-181.
    7. Simone Kelly, 2017. "The market premium for the option to close: evidence from Australian gold mining firms," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(2), pages 511-531, June.

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