IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rss/jnljfe/v2i2p3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stock Market Price Behavior and Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria: An Error Correction Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Onyemachi Maxwell Ogbulu
  • Zeph Chibueze Abaenewe
  • Patrick Nwaeze Nnamocha

Abstract

This study examines stock market price behavior and selected key macroeconomic variables in Nigeria within the period (1986-2011.) The co-integration and error correction technique (ECM), impulse response function(IRF) as well as variance decomposition(VDC) test techniques were employed to investigate the relationship between stock market prices and selected key macroeconomic variables. The study reveals that there is co-integration relationship between share prices and the selected macro economic variables, indicating long run relationship between stock prices and the specified macroeconomic variables. The findings of the study also show insignificant negative relationship between the NSE All share index (ASI) and index of industrial production (IDP) contrary to a priori expectation. The negative relationship can be attributed to high cost of energy generation and distribution in Nigeria during the period under review, a situation which has affected the industrial sector adversely. The results of the variance decomposition of ASI to shocks emanating from FXR, IDP and MRR show that ASI own shocks remain the dominant source of total variations in the forecast error of the variables. However, we recommend that adequate attention be paid to solving energy generation problem in Nigeria which invariably will reduce cost of industrial production and enhance profit margin of industries as well as support further investment in the sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Onyemachi Maxwell Ogbulu & Zeph Chibueze Abaenewe & Patrick Nwaeze Nnamocha, 2014. "Stock Market Price Behavior and Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria: An Error Correction Analysis," International Journal of Financial Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(2), pages 58-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:rss:jnljfe:v2i2p3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://rassweb.org/admin/pages/ResearchPapers/Paper%203_1496864723.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano & Aminu, Abubakar Wambai, 2018. "Economic regimes and stock market performance in Nigeria: Evidence from regime switching model," MPRA Paper 91430, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Oct 2018.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Herwartz, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2006. "Modelling the Fisher hypothesis: World wide evidence," Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    2. Bilal Mehmood & Syed Hassan Raza & Mahwish Rana & Huma Sohaib & Muhammad Azhar Khan, 2014. "Triangular Relationship between Energy Consumption, Price Index and National Income in Asian Countries: A Pooled Mean Group Approach in Presence of Structural Breaks," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 610-620.
    3. Tyrväinen, Timo, 1991. "Unions, wages and employment: evidence from Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/1991, Bank of Finland.
    4. Anatoly A. Peresetsky & Ruslan I. Yakubov, 2017. "Autocorrelation in an unobservable global trend: does it help to forecast market returns?," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2), pages 152-169.
    5. Santos, João & Domingos, Tiago & Sousa, Tânia & St. Aubyn, Miguel, 2016. "Does a small cost share reflect a negligible role for energy in economic production? Testing for aggregate production functions including capital, labor, and useful exergy through a cointegration-base," MPRA Paper 70850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Law, Siong Hook & Tan, Hui & baharumshah, ahmad, 1999. "Financial Liberalization in ASEAN and the Fisher Hypothesis," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 33, pages 65-86.
    7. Cho, Guedae & Kim, MinKyoung & Koo, Won W., 2003. "Relative Agricultural Price Changes In Different Time Horizons," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22249, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    9. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Georgios Bertsatos & Plutarchos Sakellaris & Mike G. Tsionas, 2022. "Extensions of the Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) bounds testing procedure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 605-634, February.
    11. Ranjan Aneja & Umer J. Banday & Tanzeem Hasnat & Mustafa Koçoglu, 2017. "Renewable and Non-renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Panel Error Correction Model," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 6(1), pages 76-85, June.
    12. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Cigdem Borke Tunali, 2020. "The Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 273-294, April.
    13. David Owyong & Shandre Thangavelu, 2001. "An empirical study on public capital spillovers from the USA to Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(11), pages 1493-1499.
    14. Yih-Ing Hser & Haikang Shen & Chih-Ping Chou & Stephen C. Messer & M. Douglas Anglin, 2001. "Analytic Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Treatment Effects," Evaluation Review, , vol. 25(2), pages 233-262, April.
    15. Zamani, Mehrzad, 2007. "Energy consumption and economic activities in Iran," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1135-1140, November.
    16. Alessia Naccarato & Andrea Pierini & Giovanna Ferraro, 2021. "Markowitz portfolio optimization through pairs trading cointegrated strategy in long-term investment," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 81-99, April.
    17. Muhammad Zia Ullah Khan & Muhammad Illyas & Muqqadas Rahman & Chaudhary Abdul Rahman, 2015. "Money Monetization and Economic Growth in Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(4), pages 184-192, April.
    18. Muhammad Shafiullah & Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam, 2016. "Do Bangladesh and Sri Lanka Enjoy Export-Led Growth? A Comparison of Two Small South Asian Economies," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(1), pages 114-132, March.
    19. Xu, Haifeng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Dynamic linkages of stock prices between the BRICs and the United States: Effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 344-352.
    20. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 737-745, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rss:jnljfe:v2i2p3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Danish Khalil (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.rassweb.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.