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Was the fall of the stock market in 2008 the correction bubble?

Listed author(s):
  • Chirkova, Elena

    ()

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

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    The article is diagnosed the presence of a bubble on the stock market in 2008 by analyzing the assumptions, direct and indirect signs of a bubble, as well as the analysis of price levels reached before the correction. The study showed that the formation of the prerequisites bubble in 2008 in Russia were favorable economic situation, credit growth and low cost of the loan, state investors. Factors "mass-to-market investors lay" and "the emergence of new communication tools" acted partially. Of the four analyzed indirect signs of a bubble two ("the flow of funds to the stock market from abroad 'and' increase in the number of investment funds") are mild, while two ("IPO growth and underestimation of the shares at the placement" and "narrowness of the market ') are absent. The Russian stock market was no direct evidence of such essential bubble is accelerating sharply rising prices, increased volatility and trading volume just before the collapse. There has been a deep fall was 80%, which, however, was offset by the high recovery rate of the index after correction.

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    File URL: ftp://w82.ranepa.ru/rnp/ecopol/ep1430.pdf
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    Article provided by Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration in its journal Economic Policy.

    Volume (Year): (2014)
    Issue (Month): ()
    Pages: 93-115

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    Handle: RePEc:rnp:ecopol:ep1430
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    1. Кокорев Дмитрий Александрович & Чиркова Елена Владимировна, 2010. "«Народные» Ipo На Растущих Рынках Капитала," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 14(2), pages 139-159.
    2. B. Zamaraev & A. Kiyutsevskaya & A. Nazarova & E. Sukhanov., 2009. "2008 Economy Results: The End of the «Fat» Years," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 3.
    3. Tim Loughran & Jay Ritter, 2004. "Why Has IPO Underpricing Changed Over Time?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 33(3), Fall.
    4. Rajan, Raghuram G. & Zingales, Luigi, 2003. "The great reversals: the politics of financial development in the twentieth century," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 5-50, July.
    5. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-1214, December.
    6. Чиркова Елена Владимировна, 2011. "Использование Рыночных Мультипликаторовдля Диагностирования Наличия Финансового Пузыря На Фондовом Рынке," Вестник Финансового университета, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное образовательное бюджетное учреждение высшего профессионального образования «Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации» (Финансовый университет), issue 2, pages 37-44.
    7. Чиркова Елена Владимировна, 2012. "Предпосылки Возникновения Финансового Пузыря," Вестник Финансового университета, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное образовательное бюджетное учреждение высшего профессионального образования «Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации» (Финансовый университет), issue 1, pages 79-88.
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