IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2011i3p83-91.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

P-Star Model under the Currency Board – The Case of Bulgaria 1997-2008

Author

Listed:
  • Mihalicova, Xenia

    () (Technical University in Košice, Němcovej 32, 040 00 Košice)

  • Gazda, Vladimír

    () (Technical University in Košice, Němcovej 32, 040 00 Košice)

  • Kubak, Matúš

    () (Technical University in Košice, Němcovej 32, 040 00 Košice)

  • Grof, Marek

    () (Technical University in Košice, Němcovej 32, 040 00 Košice)

Abstract

The paper deals with the P-star model in conditions of the Bulgarian economy operating under the currency board regime. The research period covers 11 years of stabilisation after the Bulgarian 1996/97 financial crisis. Our findings are twofold. First, the significant influence of the German inflation was detected as a result of anchoring the Bulgarian Lev. Second, the domestic price gap influence is showed to be statistically insignificant.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihalicova, Xenia & Gazda, Vladimír & Kubak, Matúš & Grof, Marek, 2011. "P-Star Model under the Currency Board – The Case of Bulgaria 1997-2008," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 83-91, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:3:p:83-91
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef3_11/rjef3_2011p83-91.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-858, September.
    2. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
    3. Thams, Andreas, 2007. "Inflation Transmission in the EMU: A Markov-Switching VECM Analysis," MPRA Paper 1643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Peter Hoeller & Pierre Poret, 1991. "P-Star as an Indicator of Inflationary Pressure," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 101, OECD Publishing.
    5. Yang, Jian & Guo, Hui & Wang, Zijun, 2006. "International transmission of inflation among G-7 countries: A data-determined VAR analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2681-2700, October.
    6. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
    7. Vicente Pallardo & Vicente Esteve, 2000. "The P* model and its performance for the Spanish economy," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 449-459.
    8. Jan Frait & Luboš Komárek & Lumír Kulhánek, 1998. "Analýza dynamiky inflace v ÈR pomocí P*-modelu (P-Star-Model-Based Analyses of Inflation Dynamics in the CR)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 48(11), pages 685-697, November.
    9. Karl-Heinz Tödter & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 1994. "P-Star as a link between money and prices in Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(2), pages 273-289, June.
    10. Clemens J. M. Kool & John A. Tatom, 1994. "The P-star model in five small economies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 11-29.
    11. John A. Tatom, 1990. "The P-star approach to the link between money and prices," Working Papers 1990-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    12. Hans Groeneveld, 1995. "Monetary Spill-over Effects in the ERM: The Case of Austria, a Former Shadow Member," Working Papers 20, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    P-star model; Bulgaria; inflation; price gap;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:3:p:83-91. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Corina Saman). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.