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Forecasting Romanian GDP Using a Small DSGE Model

  • Caraiani, Petre

    ()

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

In this study I apply a simple DSGE model to forecast the quarterly Romanian GDP. The forecast is based on the posterior distribution of the model parameters resulted from the Bayesian estimation. The forecast for the 2006-2007 period shows that the realized GDP is within the confidence interval of the forecast when the shock uncertainty is also included. The projection for the 2007-2010 period indicates an average growth rate of almost 6%.

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File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_08/rjef1_08_15.html
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Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 5 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 182-192

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:1:p:182-192
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  1. Guangling (Dave) Liu & Rangan Gupta, 2006. "A Small-Scale DSGE Model for Forecasting the South African Economy," Working Papers 200621, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  2. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
  3. Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
  5. Ali Dib & Mohamed Gammoudi & Kevin Moran, 2006. "Forecasting Canadian Time Series With the New-Keynesian Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 382, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  7. Juillard, Michel, 1996. "Dynare : a program for the resolution and simulation of dynamic models with forward variables through the use of a relaxation algorithm," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9602, CEPREMAP.
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