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Forecasting Romanian GDP Using a Small DSGE Model

Author

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  • Caraiani, Petre

    () (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

In this study I apply a simple DSGE model to forecast the quarterly Romanian GDP. The forecast is based on the posterior distribution of the model parameters resulted from the Bayesian estimation. The forecast for the 2006-2007 period shows that the realized GDP is within the confidence interval of the forecast when the shock uncertainty is also included. The projection for the 2007-2010 period indicates an average growth rate of almost 6%.

Suggested Citation

  • Caraiani, Petre, 2008. "Forecasting Romanian GDP Using a Small DSGE Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 182-192, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:1:p:182-192
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    2. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    3. Ali Dib & Mohamed Gammoudi & Kevin Moran, 2008. "Forecasting Canadian time series with the New Keynesian model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(1), pages 138-165, February.
    4. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    5. Guangling (dave Liu & Rangan Gupta, 2007. "A Small-Scale Dsge Model For Forecasting The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 179-193, June.
    6. Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Altar, Moisa & Necula, Ciprian & Bobeica, Gabriel, 2008. "Modeling The Economic Growth In Romania. The Role Of Human Capital," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, pages 115-128.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting methods; DSGE models; Bayesian methods; real business cycles.;

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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