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An Economic Model of the World Oil Market

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  • Michael Kennedy

Abstract

This paper presents a regional multicommodity economic model of the world oil market. The four sectors of the model are crude production, transportation, refining, and consumption of products. The regions studied are the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Asia. In the model the exogenous variables include the regional supply and demand equations, the technology of refining, and government policy variables. The scope of these variables gives the model sufficient information to determine the levels of consumption, production, and price for each commodity in each region, the pattern of world trade flows, and the refinery capital structure and output in each region. The consequences of monopolistic behavior -- implemented through the producing country cartel, OPEC -- can be studied through the simulation of the effects of changes in the export tax. Use of this model shows that the price increases for crude oil which occurred in late 1973 are not likely to persist because the largest producing region -- the Persian Gulf and North Africa -- would have the problem of allocating reduced production levels among the individual countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Kennedy, 1974. "An Economic Model of the World Oil Market," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 5(2), pages 540-577, Autumn.
  • Handle: RePEc:rje:bellje:v:5:y:1974:i:autumn:p:540-577
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    Cited by:

    1. Labys, Walter C. & Kuczmowski, Thomas & Infanger, Gerd, 1990. "4.6. Special programming models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 15(7), pages 607-617.
    2. Chin W. Yang, 1990. "An Evaluation of the Maxwell-Boltzmann Entropy Model of the Appalachian Steam Coal Market," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 20(1), pages 21-29, Winter.
    3. Lin, C.Y. Cynthia, 2009. "An Empirical Dynamic Model of OPEC and Non-OPEC," Working Papers 225895, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    4. Martijn Brons & Peter Nijkamp & Eric Pels & Piet Rietveld, 2006. "A Meta-analysis of the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand. A System of Equations Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-106/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Olufolajimi Oke & Daniel Huppmann & Max Marshall & Ricky Poulton & Sauleh Siddiqui, 2016. "Mitigating Environmental and Public-Safety Risks of United States Crude-by-Rail Transport," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1575, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Bora KAT & Çaglar GÜVEN & Ebru VOYVODA, "undated". "A General Equilibrium Energy-Economy Model for Turkey," EcoMod2008 23800059, EcoMod.
    7. Lin, C.Y. Cynthia, 2008. "Estimating Supply and Demand in the World Oil Market," Working Papers 225893, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    8. Havranek, Tomas & Kokes, Ondrej, 2015. "Income elasticity of gasoline demand: A meta-analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 77-86.
    9. Labys, Walter C. & Asano, Hiroshi, 1990. "2.2. Process models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 237-248.
    10. Hassan Ghassan & Prashanta Banerjee, 2015. "A threshold cointegration analysis of asymmetric adjustment of OPEC and non-OPEC monthly crude oil prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 305-323, August.
    11. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2014. "On the economic determinants of oil production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-79.

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