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Consideraciones sobre el nivel óptimo de reservas internacionales para Bolivia: 2003-2009


  • Cerezo Aguirre, Sergio Cerezo Aguirre

    () (Banco Central de Bolivia)


En los últimos años, Bolivia ha acumulado un nivel importante de reservas internacionales, debido a la favorable coyuntura externa y al régimen cambiario vigente (crawling peg). En ese contexto nace la interrogante de cuál es el nivel óptimo de reservas internacionales. Según los indicadores tradicionales de adecuación de reservas, y de acuerdo a un modelo que muestra el rol de las reservas como mitigadora de shocks externos adversos, las reservas óptimas se ubican por debajo de las efectivas constituidas en el banco central desde 2007. Este resultado se mantiene aun cuando se excluyen de las reservas efectivas el oro y los depósitos en moneda extranjera del sector público no financiero en el banco central. Sin embargo, un análisis de sensibilidad muestra que las reservas óptimas pueden incrementarse notablemente si cambian algunos fundamentos macroeconómicos.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerezo Aguirre, Sergio Cerezo Aguirre, 2010. "Consideraciones sobre el nivel óptimo de reservas internacionales para Bolivia: 2003-2009," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana, issue 14, pages 41-70.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:1402

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2008. "Liquidity Insurance in a Financially Dollarized Economy," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 185-218 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2006. "Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: Currency crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 225-248, February.
    3. Wendell A. Samuel & Emilio Pineda & Mario Dehesa, 2009. "Optimal Reserves in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 09/77, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu Bussière, 1999. "External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies; How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 99/88, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Holger Floerkemeier & Mariusz A. Sumlinski, 2008. "International Reserve Trends in the South Caucasus and Central Asia Region," IMF Working Papers 08/41, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mariusz A. Sumlinski, 2008. "International Reserves—Too Much of a Zipf’s Thing," IMF Working Papers 08/11, International Monetary Fund.
    7. David Hauner, 2006. "A Fiscal Price Tag for International Reserves," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 169-195, August.
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    More about this item


    Reservas internacionales; crisis en la balanza de pagos; dolarización;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics


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