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Some approaches to estimating treatment effects and empirical investigation of the robustness of the estimates to sampling design

Author

Listed:
  • Nina Belikova

    (Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Tatiana Ratnikova

    (HSE University, Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

In connection with the beginning of the SMO and the introduction of unprecedented sanctions against Russia, studies of the effects of these macro shocks on the Russian economy are becoming particularly relevant. The paper examines the possibility of using three approaches for these purposes: the method of synthetic control, the difference in differences and the synthetic difference in differences. As an empirical justification for the adequacy of the estimates obtained, we present a comparison of the calculation results based on the mentioned approaches applied to three different samples of countries. We constructed samples according to various principles, but the evaluation results appeared stable. Our research identifies a statistically significant stable negative effect on Russian imports at current prices. We did not obtain a relevant and stable effect on exports. Two approaches were found for real GDP (the difference in differences and the synthetic difference in differences) revealed a statistically significant adverse impact. These effects appeared when we added data for 2023 to the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Nina Belikova & Tatiana Ratnikova, 2025. "Some approaches to estimating treatment effects and empirical investigation of the robustness of the estimates to sampling design," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 78, pages 5-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0519
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marina Frants, 2024. "Measuring the impact of economic sanctions on the Russian economy using the synthetic control group method," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 74, pages 104-123.
    2. Gutmann, Jerg & Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2023. "The economic effects of international sanctions: An event study," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1214-1231.
    3. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Susan Athey & David A. Hirshberg & Guido W. Imbens & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Synthetic Difference-in-Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 4088-4118, December.
    4. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Ulbricht, Dirk & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2016. "Between the hammer and the anvil: The impact of economic sanctions and oil prices on Russia’s ruble," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 295-308.
    5. Ehsan RASOULINEZHAD, 2016. "Investigation of sanctions and oil price effects on the Iran-Russia trade by using the gravity model," Vestnik of the St. Petersburg University. Series 5. Economics Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Серия 5. Экономика, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное бюджетное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет», issue 2, pages 68-84.
    6. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2007. "Inverse probability weighted estimation for general missing data problems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1281-1301, December.
    7. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    8. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
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    10. Pestova, Anna & Mamonov, Mikhail, 2019. "Should we care? The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
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    13. Seyed Yaghoub Zeraatkish & Zahra Farahmand, 2019. "The effect of economic sanctions on the volume of trade in the agriculture sector of Iran and business partners in the EU," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 11(1), pages 97-103.
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    15. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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