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Some approaches to estimating treatment effects and empirical investigation of the robustness of the estimates to sampling design

Author

Listed:
  • Belikova, Nina

    (Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Ratnikova, Tatiana

    (HSE University, Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

In connection with the beginning of the SMO and the introduction of unprecedented sanctions against Russia, studies of the effects of these macro shocks on the Russian economy are becoming particularly relevant. The paper examines the possibility of using three approaches for these purposes: the method of synthetic control, the difference in differences and the synthetic difference in differences. As an empirical justification for the adequacy of the estimates obtained, we present a comparison of the calculation results based on the mentioned approaches applied to three different samples of countries. We constructed samples according to various principles, but the evaluation results appeared stable. Our research identifies a statistically significant stable negative effect on Russian imports at current prices. We did not obtain a relevant and stable effect on exports. Two approaches were found for real GDP (the difference in differences and the synthetic difference in differences) revealed a statistically significant adverse impact. These effects appeared when we added data for 2023 to the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Belikova, Nina & Ratnikova, Tatiana, 2025. "Some approaches to estimating treatment effects and empirical investigation of the robustness of the estimates to sampling design," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 78, pages 5-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0519
    as

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    synthetic control method; differences in differences; synthetic differences in differences; synthetic double; treatment effect; macroshocks; sanctions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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