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Les taux de change bilatéraux adoptés pour l’entrée dans l’euro sont-ils des taux d’équilibre?

Listed author(s):
  • Rey, Serge

    (Centre d’Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques (C.A.T.T.), Université de Pau et des Pays de l’Adour)

In May 1998, European authorities decided to fix in an irrevocable way the bilateral parities for the currencies of the 11 countries that have adopted the euro. The study of European bilateral exchange rates against the Deutschmark shows that in most cases these parities are very close to the rates of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) defïned by general price levels (consumer price or Gross Domestic Product price). Yet, these parities are not consistent with labor unit cost parity. More important, the entry in the euro was made at exchange rates levels that reinforce costs differences between the European countries up to 40%. Furthermore, a causality analysis concludes that the cost divergences are more significant than price divergences in explaining the internal and external disequilibrium. These results lead to important doubts regarding the aptness of referring to a general price level PPP and invite to better take into account labor unit costs in fixing the equilibrium parities. Au mois de mai 1998, les autorités européennes ont décidé de fixer de manière irrévocable les parités bilatérales pour les monnaies des 11 pays qui ont adopté l’euro. En étudiant les taux de change bilatéraux des différents pays européens face au deutsche mark, on montre que dans la plupart des cas, ces parités sont très proches de taux de parité des pouvoirs d’achat (PPA) définis à l’aide de niveaux généraux de prix (prix à la consommation ou prix du Produit Intérieur Brut). À l’inverse, ces parités ne sont pas compatibles avec ce que donnerait l’utilisation d’une parité des coûts unitaires du travail. Ainsi, on observe que l’entrée dans l’euro s’est faite à des niveaux de taux de change qui valident des écarts de coûts pouvant atteindre 40 %. Or, une analyse en termes de causalité montre que ce sont les distorsions de coûts plus que celles de prix qui sont significatives pour expliquer des déséquilibres internes et/ou externes. Ces conclusions conduisent à douter de la pertinence d’une référence à une PPA des niveaux généraux de prix et invitent à tenir compte davantage des coûts unitaires du travail pour la fixation des parités d’équilibre.

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Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

Volume (Year): 77 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (mars)
Pages: 75-112

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Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:77:y:2001:i:1:p:75-112
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  8. Lafrance, Robert & Osakwe, Patrick & St-Amant, Pierre, 1998. "Evaluating Alternative Measures of the Real Effective Exchange Rate," Staff Working Papers 98-20, Bank of Canada.
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  10. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
  11. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
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