IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/actuec/0032.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

La précision des analystes financiers en Europe : l’effet pays et l’effet secteur revisités

Author

Listed:
  • Coën, Alain

    (Département de finance, École des sciences de la gestion, Université du Québec à Montréal)

  • Desfleurs, Aurélie

    (Département de sciences comptables et fiscalité, Faculté d’administration, Université de Sherbrooke, Département des sciences comptables, Université du Québec en Outaouais)

Abstract

We analyze earnings forecasting errors made by financial analysts for 13 European countries over the 1990-2006 period. We use the Heston-Rouwenhorst approach to unravel country-, industry-, and firm-specific effects as a source of variation in financial analysts’ earnings forecast errors. We first estimate each effect with a dummy variable regression, and then decompose the variance of forecast errors into different effects. We provide evidence that the differences among countries, industrial sectors, or analyst following offer a weak explanation for differences in forecast errors. Country effects, related to absolute forecast errors, however largely dominate industry and analyst following effects on European stock markets until 2004. Focusing on forecast bias, this trend is reversed much earlier (1997). By contrast, the type of earnings – profits or losses – and variations in earnings – increases or decreases – play a significant role in the performance of financial analysts. Résumé : Nous analysons les erreurs de prévision commises par les analystes financiers pour 13 pays européens sur la période 1990-2006. Afin de mettre en évidence les effets pays, industries et ceux spécifiques à la firme comme sources de variation des erreurs de précision, nous adaptons une méthode développée par Heston et Rouwenhorst (1994) pour étudier la décomposition de la variance des rendements boursiers. Nous estimons chaque effet à l’aide d’une régression avec des variables muettes, puis nous décomposons la variance en mettant en évidence la contribution de chaque effet. Nos résultats révèlent que les différences entre les pays, secteurs industriels ou nombre d’analystes offrent une faible explication aux erreurs de prévision. Par contre, notre analyse dynamique montre clairement que l’effet pays domine de façon continue l’effet industrie et le nombre d’analystes sur les marchés financiers européens jusqu'en 2004 où un retournement de tendance est observé. Lorsque le biais de prévision est étudié, l'ordonnancement est inversé dès 1997. Par contraste, le type de bénéfice – profits ou pertes – et la variation des bénéfices – augmentation ou diminution – jouent un rôle très significatif dans la performance des analystes financiers.

Suggested Citation

  • Coën, Alain & Desfleurs, Aurélie, 2010. "La précision des analystes financiers en Europe : l’effet pays et l’effet secteur revisités," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 86(2), pages 133-162, juin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.erudit.org/revue/ae/2010/v86/n2/1001948ar.html
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lin, Hsiou-wei & McNichols, Maureen F., 1998. "Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 101-127, February.
    2. Allen, Arthur & Cho, Jang Youn & Jung, Kooyul, 1997. "Earnings forecast errors: Comparative evidence from the Pacific-Basin capital markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 115-129, February.
    3. John Capstaff & Krishna Paudyal & William Rees, 2001. "A Comparative Analysis of Earnings Forecasts in Europe," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5‐6), pages 531-562, June.
    4. Brooks, Robin & Del Negro, Marco, 2004. "The rise in comovement across national stock markets: market integration or IT bubble?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 659-680, December.
    5. DeFond, Mark L. & Hung, Mingyi, 2003. "An empirical analysis of analysts' cash flow forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 73-100, April.
    6. Levy, Haim & Sarnat, Marshall, 1970. "International Diversification of Investment Portfolios," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 668-675, September.
    7. Patel, Sandeep A. & Balic, Amra & Bwakira, Liliane, 2002. "Measuring transparency and disclosure at firm-level in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 325-337, December.
    8. John Capstaff & Krishna Paudyal & William Rees, 2001. "A Comparative Analysis of Earnings Forecasts in Europe," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5‐6), pages 531-562, June.
    9. Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, February.
    10. Moerman, Gerard A., 2008. "Diversification in euro area stock markets: Country versus industry," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1122-1134, November.
    11. Griffin, John M. & Andrew Karolyi, G., 1998. "Another look at the role of the industrial structure of markets for international diversification strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 351-373, December.
    12. Frankel, Richard & Kothari, S.P. & Weber, Joseph, 2006. "Determinants of the informativeness of analyst research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 29-54, April.
    13. Peter Easton & Gary Taylor & Pervin Shroff & Theodore Sougiannis, 2002. "Using Forecasts of Earnings to Simultaneously Estimate Growth and the Rate of Return on Equity Investment," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 657-676, June.
    14. Abarbanell, Jeffery & Lehavy, Reuven, 2003. "Biased forecasts or biased earnings? The role of reported earnings in explaining apparent bias and over/underreaction in analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 105-146, December.
    15. Miguel Almeida Ferreira & Miguel Ângelo Ferreira, 2006. "The Importance of Industry and Country Effects in the EMU Equity Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(3), pages 341-373, June.
    16. Bradshaw, Mark T. & Richardson, Scott A. & Sloan, Richard G., 2006. "The relation between corporate financing activities, analysts' forecasts and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 53-85, October.
    17. John C. Easterwood & Stacey R. Nutt, 1999. "Inefficiency in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Systematic Misreaction or Systematic Optimism?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1777-1797, October.
    18. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hela Turki & Senda Wali & Younes Boujelbène, 2016. "IFRS, Environnement Informationnel et Pertinence des chiffres comptables," Post-Print hal-01901074, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    2. Coen, Alain & Desfleurs, Aurelie & L'Her, Jean-Francois & Suret, Jean-Marc, 2005. "Another look at factors explaining quality of financial analysts' forecasts: Evidence from the Asian emerging markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(4-5), pages 414-434, October.
    3. So, Eric C., 2013. "A new approach to predicting analyst forecast errors: Do investors overweight analyst forecasts?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 615-640.
    4. Lonkani, Ravi, 2019. "Gender differences and managerial earnings forecast bias: Are female executives less overconfident than male executives?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 18-34.
    5. Chiang, Shu-hen & Liu, Wen-Chien & Suardi, Sandy & Zhao, Jing, 2021. "United we stand divided we fall: The time-varying factors driving European Union stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Sanjay W. Bissessur & David Veenman, 2016. "Analyst information precision and small earnings surprises," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1327-1360, December.
    7. Chou, Hsin-I & Zhao, Jing & Suardi, Sandy, 2014. "Factor reversal in the euro zone stock returns: Evidence from the crisis period," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 28-55.
    8. Bai, Ye & Green, Christopher J. & Leger, Lawrence, 2012. "Industry and country factors in emerging market returns: Did the Asian crisis make a difference?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 559-580.
    9. Marcelo, José Luis Miralles & Quirós, José Luis Miralles & Martins, José Luís, 2013. "The role of country and industry factors during volatile times," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 273-290.
    10. Clatworthy, Mark A. & Peel, David A. & Pope, Peter F., 2007. "Evaluating the properties of analysts’ forecasts: A bootstrap approach," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 3-13.
    11. Faias, José A. & Ferreira, Miguel A., 2017. "Does institutional ownership matter for international stock return comovement?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 64-83.
    12. Hela Turki & Senda Wali & Younes Boujelbène, 2016. "IFRS, Environnement Informationnel et Pertinence des chiffres comptables," Post-Print hal-01901074, HAL.
    13. Campa, Jose Manuel & Fernandes, Nuno, 2006. "Sources of gains from international portfolio diversification," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 417-443, October.
    14. Eun, Cheol S. & Lee, Jinsoo, 2010. "Mean-variance convergence around the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 856-870, April.
    15. Armen Hovakimian & Ekkachai Saenyasiri, 2014. "US Analyst Regulation and the Earnings Forecast Bias around the World," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(3), pages 435-461, June.
    16. Apergis, Nicholas & Christou, Christina & Miller, Stephen M., 2014. "Country and industry convergence of equity markets: International evidence from club convergence and clustering," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 36-58.
    17. Gu, Zhaoyang & Xue, Jian, 2008. "The superiority and disciplining role of independent analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2-3), pages 289-316, August.
    18. Coroneo, Laura & Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T., 2020. "International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    19. Borgsen, Sina & Glaser, Markus, 2005. "Diversifikationseffekte durch small und mid caps? : Eine empirische Untersuchung basierend auf europäischen Aktienindizes," Papers 05-10, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    20. Borgsen, Sina & Glaser, Markus, 2005. "Diversifikationseffekte durch Small und Mid Caps?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-10, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0032. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Benoit Dostie (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/scseeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.