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Prévision de résultats par les dirigeants. Impact informationnel sur les cours et les volumes

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  • Emmanuel Tchemeni
  • Huu Minh Mai

Abstract

[fre] Cette étude est consacrée au test de la valeur informationnelle des prévisions de résultats publiées par les dirigeants de sociétés.. L'échantillon de données comporte 945 prévisions correspondant à 176 socié­tés, sur la période 1984 à 1990. Ces sociétés sont de taille relativement plus importante que la moyenne du marché.. La méthodologie appliquée est celle de l'étude d'événement qui consiste à examiner l'existence de rentabilités anormales significativement différentes de zéro et de volumes anormaux de transactions significativement importants autour et à la date d'événement.. Les résultats trouvés indiquent des variations significatives de cours et de volume à la date d'annonce ; les prévisions semblent être à l'origine des modifica­tions des anticipations des investisseurs et donc des réajustements des porte­feuilles. [eng] The informational value of one type of prospective information, the manage­ment earnings forecasts, is the focus of this study. Some characteristics of the sample companies are analysed, the abnormal returns and abnormal volumes around the date the event is known are calculated and their amplitude tested.. The data comprises 945 forecasts corresponding to 176 firms, on the period 1984 to 1990.. The results indicate that management earnings' forecasts are price informative since abnormal returns and abnormal volumes significantly greater than zero are observed around the event date. Companies whose managers publish earnings' forecasts have on average greater market value than the market as a whole ; the forecasts are mostly good news (announce increase in earnings compare to those of the precedent fiscal year).

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel Tchemeni & Huu Minh Mai, 1997. "Prévision de résultats par les dirigeants. Impact informationnel sur les cours et les volumes," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(1), pages 123-145.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1997_num_48_1_409867
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1997.409867
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1997.409867
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Pascal Dumontier & Real Labelle, 1998. "Accounting earnings and firm valuation: the French case," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 163-183.

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