Cible de niveau de prix versus cible d'inflation : état des lieux et perspectives
[fre] Une Banque centrale doit-elle cibler l’inflation ou plutôt le niveau des prix afin de maximiser le bien-être social ? Cet article fait un point sur cette question qui s’est essentiellement posée, dans un cadre nouveau keynésien, caractérisé par la présence de rigidités nominales et d’anticipations rationnelles. Tout d’abord, cet article expose les mécanismes inhérents aux deux types de cible. Puis il donne un rapide aperçu des enjeux sur lesquels les études sur ce thème se sont principalement concentrées. Les auteurs introduisent ensuite la notion de crédibilité de la politique monétaire dans un environnement nouveau keynésien dont une bonne compréhension est nécessaire à l’intuition des résultats sur le choix de la cible. Enfin, la discussion est élargie en introduisant différents aspects complémentaires susceptibles d’être résolus plus efficacement sous une cible de niveau de prix. Classification JEL : E5, E52, [eng] Price level versus inflation targeting : achievement and challenges Should a central Bank target the inflation or rather the price level to maximise the social welfare ? This article analyses this question which is essentially set in a new keynesian framework, characterised by nominal rigidities and rational anticipations. First, this article exposes inherent mechanisms to the two types of target. Then it gives an outline of the stakes on which the studies on this subject mainly focused. The authors introduce then the notion of credibility of the monetary policy into a new keynesian environment, a good understanding of which is necessary for the intuition of the results on the choice of the target. Finally, the discussion is widened by introducing various additional aspects susceptible to be more effectively resolved under a price level targeting. JEL classifications : E5, E52.
Volume (Year): 65 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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