La politique monétaire française à travers la règle de Taylor
[eng] French monetary policy and the Taylor rule The Taylor rule is the most popular illustration of the efficiency of activist monetary policy rules. Many previous works have shown, without interrogating themselves on the optimality of the initial rule, that the main industrial countries followed a policy close to the Taylor rule. France is a notable exception whereas one often assigns a part of the responsibility of the weak growth of the nineties to a too restrictive monetary policy. The goal of this paper is therefore to determine, by simulations, an optimal Taylor rule for France in the setting of a small econometric model and to look how such a rule would have modified the behavior of prices and growth if it had been followed. [fre] La règle de Taylor est l’illustration la plus populaire de l’efficacité des règles activistes de politique monétaire. De nombreux travaux ont montré, sans s’interroger sur l’optimalité de la règle initiale, que les grands pays industriels ont suivi une politique proche de la règle de Taylor. La France est une exception notable alors que l’on attribue souvent une partie de la responsabilité de la faible croissance des années 90 à une politique monétaire trop restrictive. Le but de cet article est donc de déterminer, par des simulations, une règle de Taylor optimale pour la France dans le cadre d’un petit modèle économétrique et de regarder en quoi une telle règle aurait modifié le comportement des prix et de la croissance si elle avait été suivie.
Volume (Year): 49 (1998)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
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