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Gains d'information du décideur public et valeur d'option des grands projets d'infrastructure

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  • Laurent Denant-Boèmont
  • Sabrina Hammiche

Abstract

[eng] Information Gains of the Policy Maker Option Value of Major Public Infrastructure Projects . by Laurent Denant-Boèmont and Sabrina Hammiche . This paper analyses the risk of dynamic irreversibility for major public infrastructure projects using the theory of quasi-option value (Henry, 1974; Arrow, Fisher, 1974) in cost-benefit analysis. The case study compares two competing public infrastructure projects: an irreversible motorway project and a flexible rail project. The latter allows the motorway investment decision to be deferred. Quasi-option value is then applied for a risk environment in which information increases over time, changing the balance between the two projects. The monetised value of the environmental externalities, upon which today's transport policy tends to focus, might then be viewed as secondary to projects' irreversibility costs. [fre] Cet article évalue le risque d'irréversibilité dynamique de grands projets d'infrastructure publique en recourant à la notion de Valeur d'Option Séquentielle (Arrow, Fisher, 1974 ; Henry, 1974) au sein d'Analyses Coûts-Avantages. L'application proposée concerne deux projets d'infrastructure concurrents, un projet autoroutier irréversible et un projet ferroviaire flexible. En effet, ce dernier permet de différer la décision d' investir dans l' autoroute. La Valeur d' Option Séquentielle est alors mise en évidence dans un contexte d'environnement risqué dans lequel le niveau d'information croît au cours du temps. L'arbitrage entre ces deux projets change alors. La valeur monétarisée des externalités environnementales, sur lequel la politique des transports met aujourd'hui l'accent, peut dès lors paraître secondaire au regard des coûts de l'irréversibilité des projets.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Denant-Boèmont & Sabrina Hammiche, 2000. "Gains d'information du décideur public et valeur d'option des grands projets d'infrastructure," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 143(2), pages 139-153.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2000_num_143_2_6097
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2000.6097
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2000.6097
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jon M. Conrad, 1980. "Quasi-Option Value and the Expected Value of Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 94(4), pages 813-820.
    2. Kreps, David M, 1979. "A Representation Theorem for "Preference for Flexibility"," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 565-577, May.
    3. Hans Gersbach, 1997. "Risk And The Value Of Information In Irreversible Decisions," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 37-51, January.
    4. Kenneth J. Arrow & Anthony C. Fisher, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 88(2), pages 312-319.
    5. Xavier Freixas, 1987. "L'effet d'irréversibilité dans le choix de grands projets," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 38(1), pages 149-156.
    6. Robert A. Jones & Joseph M. Ostroy, 1984. "Flexibility and Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 51(1), pages 13-32.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karine Fiore, 2004. "Irréversibilité Mixte et Modularité : une application à l’investissement électronucléaire," CAE Working Papers 17, Aix-Marseille Université, CERGAM.

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