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Taux d'intérêt et comportements spéculatifs sur le marché du franc français

  • François Renard
  • Michel Boutillier
  • Camille Baulant

[ger] Zinssatz und spekulatives Verhalten gegenüber dem französischen Franc, . von Camille Baulant, Michel Boutillier, François Renard.. . Auf der Grundlage eines vermögensspezifischen Ansatzes bei der Modellierung des Wechselkurses wird zunächst das Verhalten der Gebietsfremden gegenüber dem französischen Franc und danach das der Gebietsansässigen gegenüber den anderen Währungen analysiert. In den Modellen wird zwischen Spekulationsguthaben und Bestandsdeckungsguthaben unterschieden. Bei Spekulationen handelt es sich aber immer urn kurzfristige Betätigungen, während die Bestandsdeckung sowohl einen kurzfristigen als auch einen langfristigen Charakter haben kann. Einher geht dies mit der Devisenbewirtschaftung, wie sie in Frankreich während eines Großteils des untersuchten Zeitraums (1979-1989) praktiziert wurde. [spa] Tipo de interés y comportamientos especulativos en el mercado del franco francés, . por Camille Baulant, Michel Boutillier y François Renard.. . En primer lugar, se procede al análisis de la posición de los no résidentes con respecto al franco, y acto seguido, aquella de los propios residentes con respecto a las divisas, tomando como punto de partida un planteamiento patrimonial de modelización del tipo de cambio. Los modelos establecen la distinción entre carteras especulativas y de cobertura. Ahora bién, los comportamientos especulativos únicamente se ponen de manifiesto a corto plazo, mientras que los comportamientos de cobertura se observan, tanto a corto como a largo plazo. Ello corre parejo con el control de cambios practicado durante la mayor parte del período estudiado (1979-1989). [eng] Interest Rates and Speculative Behaviour on the French franc Market, . by Camille Baulant, Michel Boutillier and François Renard.. . First of all, the position of non-residents on the French franc and then the residents' position on the currency is analyzed by using a net worth approach to exchange rate modelling. The models identify speculative portfolios and hedging portfolios. Speculative behaviour only exists for short-term trading whereas hedging behaviour is seen in both short-term and long-term trading. This goes hand in hand with the foreign exchange control practised for most of the period studied (1979-1989). [fre] Taux d'intérêt et comportements spéculatifs sur le marché du franc, . par Camille Baulant, Michel Boutillier, François Renard.. . La position des non-résidents sur le franc puis celle des résidents sur les devises est d'abord analysée, à partir d'une approche patrimoniale de la modélisation du taux de change. Les modèles distinguent portefeuilles spéculatif et de couverture ; or, il n'y a de comportements spéculatifs qu'à court terme, des comportements de couverture étant détectés à court comme à long terme. Ceci va de pair avec le contrôle des changes pratiqué durant la majeure partie de la période étudiée (1979-1989).

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 106 (1992)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 97-108

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1992_num_106_5_5318
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1992.5318
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  9. Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  11. James M. Boughton, 1988. "Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 36-62, March.
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  17. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
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