IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prg/jnlpol/v2010y2010i4id744p504-521.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Posouzení odhadu měnového rizika portfolia pomocí Lévyho modelů
[Examination of Portfolio Currency Risk Estimation by Means of Lévy Models]

Author

Listed:
  • Tomáš Tichý

Abstract

Financial risk modeling, measuring, and managing are an inherent part of management in financial institutions. It is also an important step within the setting of optimal level of capital eligible to cover risk exposures. A significant portion of capital is usually assigned to cover the risk of unexpected changes in FX rates. FX rates (the returns) commonly exhibit significant skewness and relatively huge kurtosis. In this paper, we apply subordinated Lévy models coupled together by ordinary elliptical copula functions in order to estimate the FX rate risk of normalized portfolio. Selected models are applied in order to estimate the risk ex-post, as well as ex-ante. The models are also compared to the more standard assumption of the joint normal distribution. Although the results for both types of modeling are quite different and Lévy measure is ignored, suggested models deliver us improved risk estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomáš Tichý, 2010. "Posouzení odhadu měnového rizika portfolia pomocí Lévyho modelů [Examination of Portfolio Currency Risk Estimation by Means of Lévy Models]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(4), pages 504-521.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2010:y:2010:i:4:id:744:p:504-521
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.744
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://polek.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.polek.744.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://polek.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.polek.744.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18267/j.polek.744?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dilip B. Madan & Peter P. Carr & Eric C. Chang, 1998. "The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-105.
    2. Dilip B. Madan & Frank Milne, 1991. "Option Pricing With V. G. Martingale Components1," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(4), pages 39-55, October.
    3. Benoit Mandelbrot & Howard M. Taylor, 1967. "On the Distribution of Stock Price Differences," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 15(6), pages 1057-1062, December.
    4. Dilip B. Madan & Frank Milne, 1991. "Option Pricing With V. G. Martingale Components," Working Paper 1159, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    5. Vít Bubák & Filip Žikeš, 2009. "Distribution and Dynamics of Central-European Exchange Rates: Evidence from Intraday Data," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(4), pages 334-359, Oktober.
    6. Madan, Dilip B & Seneta, Eugene, 1990. "The Variance Gamma (V.G.) Model for Share Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(4), pages 511-524, October.
    7. Tomáš Tichý, 2006. "Model Dependency of the Digital Option Replication – Replication under an Incomplete Model (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(7-8), pages 361-379, July.
    8. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    9. Mejra Festić & Dejan Romih, 2008. "Cyclicality of the banking sector performance and macro environment in the Czech republic, Slovakia and Slovenia," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(2), pages 99-117.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1392 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kao, Lie-Jane & Wu, Po-Cheng & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2012. "Time-changed GARCH versus the GARJI model for prediction of extreme news events: An empirical study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 115-129.
    3. Jacques Pézier & Johanna Scheller, 2011. "A Comprehensive Evaluation of Portfolio Insurance Strategies," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2011-15, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    4. Roman Ivanov, 2015. "The distribution of the maximum of a variance gamma process and path-dependent option pricing," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 979-993, October.
    5. Laura Ballota & Griselda Deelstra & Grégory Rayée, 2015. "Quanto Implied Correlation in a Multi-Lévy Framework," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-36, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Erdinc Akyildirim & Alper A. Hekimoglu & Ahmet Sensoy & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2023. "Extending the Merton model with applications to credit value adjustment," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 326(1), pages 27-65, July.
    7. Fiorani, Filo, 2004. "Option Pricing Under the Variance Gamma Process," MPRA Paper 15395, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Marco Bee & Maria Michela Dickson & Flavio Santi, 2018. "Likelihood-based risk estimation for variance-gamma models," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 27(1), pages 69-89, March.
    9. Jingzhi Huang & Liuren Wu, 2004. "Specification Analysis of Option Pricing Models Based on Time- Changed Levy Processes," Finance 0401002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Salem, Marwa Belhaj & Fouladirad, Mitra & Deloux, Estelle, 2022. "Variance Gamma process as degradation model for prognosis and imperfect maintenance of centrifugal pumps," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    11. George Bouzianis & Lane P. Hughston, 2019. "Determination Of The Lévy Exponent In Asset Pricing Models," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(01), pages 1-18, February.
    12. Liming Feng & Vadim Linetsky, 2008. "Pricing Options in Jump-Diffusion Models: An Extrapolation Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(2), pages 304-325, April.
    13. Hatem Ben‐Ameur & Rim Chérif & Bruno Rémillard, 2020. "Dynamic programming for valuing American options under a variance‐gamma process," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1548-1561, October.
    14. Athanassios N. Avramidis & Pierre L'Ecuyer, 2006. "Efficient Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo Option Pricing Under the Variance Gamma Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(12), pages 1930-1944, December.
    15. Chan, Tat Lung (Ron), 2020. "Hedging and pricing early-exercise options with complex fourier series expansion," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    16. McCulloch, James, 2012. "Fractal market time," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 686-701.
    17. Jakša Cvitanić & Vassilis Polimenis & Fernando Zapatero, 2008. "Optimal portfolio allocation with higher moments," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-28, January.
    18. Ivanov Roman V., 2018. "On risk measuring in the variance-gamma model," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 35(1-2), pages 23-33, January.
    19. Winston Buckley & Sandun Perera, 2019. "Optimal demand in a mispriced asymmetric Carr–Geman–Madan–Yor (CGMY) economy," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 337-368, September.
    20. Claudia Yeap & Simon S Kwok & S T Boris Choy, 2018. "A Flexible Generalized Hyperbolic Option Pricing Model and Its Special Cases," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 425-460.
    21. Svetlana Boyarchenko & Sergei Levendorskiĭ, 2019. "Sinh-Acceleration: Efficient Evaluation Of Probability Distributions, Option Pricing, And Monte Carlo Simulations," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(03), pages 1-49, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    variance gamma model; normal inverse Gaussian model; Lévy models; ordinary elliptical copula function; financial risk; backtesting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2010:y:2010:i:4:id:744:p:504-521. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Vojir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.