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Household Indebtedness and Economic Growth (Empirical Analysis)

  • Vratislav Izák
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    One important aspect of the resulting indebtedness in full-fledged market economies is the mutual influence between different economic sectors. Therefore, alongside the government indebtedness, one must take into account also the debts of private agents, especially of households and non-financial corporations. In this paper our effort is concentrated on the household sector, especially the impacts on economic growth. We have gathered data for the time period 1995-2010 for the sample of 17 European OECD countries. The main descriptive statistics reveal high and still increasing indebtedness (ratio on the net disposable income) especially in Denmark, The Netherlands, Norway and Sweden and still low indebtedness in postsocialist countries. In panel regressions (fixed effects) we add loans as another explanatory variable into growth equation and examine the impacts on the growth rate of real GDP. The main result shows that a 10 percentage point increase in the ratio of household loans to the net disposable income is associated with about 30 basis point reduction in lagged economic growth. More profound looks give the study of both cross-specific and period-specific coefficients. Last but not least we have examined more homogenous panel of 13 countries putting aside 4 postsocialist countries.

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    Article provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal European Financial and Accounting Journal.

    Volume (Year): 2012 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 10-32

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    Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlefa:v:2012:y:2012:i:3:id:3:p:10-32
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    1. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
    2. Kneller, Richard & Bleaney, Michael F. & Gemmell, Norman, 1999. "Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 171-190, November.
    3. Bas B. Bakker & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Luc Laeven & Jérôme Vandenbussche & Deniz Igan & Hui Tong, 2012. "Policies for Macrofinancial Stability; How to Deal with Credit Booms," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/06, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1994. "Cross-sectional regressions and the empirics of economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 739-747, April.
    5. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
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