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Integrated model for food-energy-water (FEW) nexus to study global sustainability: The main generalized global sustainability model (GGSM)

Author

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  • Apoorva Nisal
  • Urmila Diwekar
  • Neeraj Hanumante
  • Yogendra Shastri
  • Heriberto Cabezas

Abstract

Over the years, several global models have been proposed to forecast global sustainability, provide a framework for sustainable policy-making, or to study sustainability across the FEW nexus. An integrated model is presented here with components like food-web ecosystem dynamics, microeconomics components, including energy producers and industries, and various socio-techno-economic policy dimensions. The model consists of 15 compartments representing a simplified ecological food-web set in a macroeconomic framework along with a rudimentary legal system. The food-web is modeled by Lotka–Volterra type expressions, whereas the economy is represented by a price-setting model wherein firms and human households attempt to maximize their economic well-being. The model development is done using global-scale data for stocks and flows of food, energy, and water, which were used to parameterize this model. Appropriate proportions for some of the ecological compartments like herbivores and carnivores are used to model those compartments. The modeling of the human compartment was carried out using historical data for the global mortality rate. Historical data were used to parameterize the model. Data for key variables like the human population, GDP growth, greenhouse gases like CO2 and NOX emissions were used to validate the model. The model was then used to make long-term forecasts and to study global sustainability over an extended time. The purpose of this study was to create a global model which can provide techno-socio-economic policy solutions for global sustainability. Further, scenario analysis was conducted for cases where the human population or human consumption increases rapidly to observe the impact on the sustainability of the planet over the next century. The results indicated that the planet can support increased population if the per capita consumption levels do not rise. However, increased consumption resulted in exhaustion of natural resources and increased the CO2 emissions by a multiple of 100.

Suggested Citation

  • Apoorva Nisal & Urmila Diwekar & Neeraj Hanumante & Yogendra Shastri & Heriberto Cabezas, 2022. "Integrated model for food-energy-water (FEW) nexus to study global sustainability: The main generalized global sustainability model (GGSM)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(5), pages 1-22, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0267403
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0267403
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Puliafito, Salvador Enrique & Puliafito, José Luis & Grand, Mariana Conte, 2008. "Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 602-615, April.
    2. Detlef P. Van Vuuren & David L. Bijl & Patrick Bogaart & Elke Stehfest & Hester Biemans & Stefan C. Dekker & Jonathan C. Doelman & David E. H. J. Gernaat & Mathijs Harmsen, 2019. "Integrated scenarios to support analysis of the food–energy–water nexus," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(12), pages 1132-1141, December.
    3. Boumans, Roelof & Costanza, Robert & Farley, Joshua & Wilson, Matthew A. & Portela, Rosimeiry & Rotmans, Jan & Villa, Ferdinando & Grasso, Monica, 2002. "Modeling the dynamics of the integrated earth system and the value of global ecosystem services using the GUMBO model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 529-560, June.
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