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Quantifying political influence on COVID-19 fatality in Brazil

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  • Leandro de Almeida
  • Pedro V Carelli
  • Nara Gualberto Cavalcanti
  • José-Dias do Nascimento Jr.
  • Daniel Felinto

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic was severely aggravated in Brazil due to its politicization by the country’s federal government. However, the impact of diffuse political forces on the fatality of an epidemic is notoriously difficult to quantify. Here we introduce a method to measure this effect in the Brazilian case, based on the inhomogeneous distribution throughout the national territory of political support for the federal government. This political support is quantified by the voting rates in the last general election in Brazil. This data is correlated with the fatality rates by COVID-19 in each Brazilian state as the number of deaths grows over time. We show that the correlation between fatality rate and political support grows as the government’s misinformation campaign is developed. This led to the dominance of such political factor for the pandemic impact in Brazil in 2021. Once this dominance is established, this correlation allows for an estimation of the total number of deaths due to political influence as 350±70 thousand up to the end of 2021, corresponding to (57±11)% of the total number of deaths.

Suggested Citation

  • Leandro de Almeida & Pedro V Carelli & Nara Gualberto Cavalcanti & José-Dias do Nascimento Jr. & Daniel Felinto, 2022. "Quantifying political influence on COVID-19 fatality in Brazil," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(7), pages 1-11, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0264293
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264293
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Allcott, Hunt & Boxell, Levi & Conway, Jacob & Gentzkow, Matthew & Thaler, Michael & Yang, David, 2020. "Polarization and public health: Partisan differences in social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    2. Nicolás Ajzenman & Tiago Cavalcanti & Daniel Da Mata, 2023. "More than Words: Leaders' Speech and Risky Behavior during a Pandemic," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 351-371, August.
    3. Luke Taylor, 2021. "‘We are being ignored’: Brazil’s researchers blame anti-science government for devastating COVID surge," Nature, Nature, vol. 593(7857), pages 15-16, May.
    4. Anton Gollwitzer & Cameron Martel & William J. Brady & Philip Pärnamets & Isaac G. Freedman & Eric D. Knowles & Jay J. Van Bavel, 2020. "Partisan differences in physical distancing are linked to health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 1186-1197, November.
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