IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0188107.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • Sujin Pyo
  • Jaewook Lee
  • Mincheol Cha
  • Huisu Jang

Abstract

The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Sujin Pyo & Jaewook Lee & Mincheol Cha & Huisu Jang, 2017. "Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(11), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0188107
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0188107
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0188107
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0188107&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0188107?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hyunyoung Choi & Hal Varian, 2012. "Predicting the Present with Google Trends," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(s1), pages 2-9, June.
    2. Pai, Ping-Feng & Lin, Chih-Sheng, 2005. "A hybrid ARIMA and support vector machines model in stock price forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 497-505, December.
    3. Song, Yu & Akagi, Fumio, 2016. "Application of artificial neural network for the prediction of stock market returns: The case of the Japanese stock marketAuthor-Name: Qiu, Mingyue," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1-7.
    4. Zahedi, Javad & Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi, 2015. "Application of artificial neural network models and principal component analysis method in predicting stock prices on Tehran Stock Exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 178-187.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jun, So Young & Kim, Dong Sung & Jung, Suk Yoon & Jun, Sang Gyung & Kim, Jong Woo, 2022. "Stock investment strategy combining earnings power index and machine learning," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    2. Sangyeon Kim & Myungjoo Kang, 2019. "Financial series prediction using Attention LSTM," Papers 1902.10877, arXiv.org.
    3. Mojtaba Sedighi & Hossein Jahangirnia & Mohsen Gharakhani & Saeed Farahani Fard, 2019. "A Novel Hybrid Model for Stock Price Forecasting Based on Metaheuristics and Support Vector Machine," Data, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-28, May.
    4. Firuz Kamalov & Linda Smail & Ikhlaas Gurrib, 2021. "Stock price forecast with deep learning," Papers 2103.14081, arXiv.org.
    5. Wei Liu & Yoshihisa Suzuki & Shuyi Du, 2024. "Forecasting the Stock Price of Listed Innovative SMEs Using Machine Learning Methods Based on Bayesian optimization: Evidence from China," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(5), pages 2035-2068, May.
    6. Chu Myaet Thwal & Ye Lin Tun & Kitae Kim & Seong-Bae Park & Choong Seon Hong, 2024. "Transformers with Attentive Federated Aggregation for Time Series Stock Forecasting," Papers 2402.06638, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ehsan Hoseinzade & Saman Haratizadeh & Arash Khoeini, 2019. "U-CNNpred: A Universal CNN-based Predictor for Stock Markets," Papers 1911.12540, arXiv.org.
    2. Manel Hamdi & Walid Chkili, 2019. "An artificial neural network augmented GARCH model for Islamic stock market volatility: Do asymmetry and long memory matter?," Working Papers 13, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    3. Arezoo Hatefi Ghahfarrokhi & Mehrnoush Shamsfard, 2019. "Tehran Stock Exchange Prediction Using Sentiment Analysis of Online Textual Opinions," Papers 1909.03792, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
    4. Li, Hengyun & Hu, Mingming & Li, Gang, 2020. "Forecasting tourism demand with multisource big data," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Arezoo Hatefi Ghahfarrokhi & Mehrnoush Shamsfard, 2020. "Tehran stock exchange prediction using sentiment analysis of online textual opinions," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 22-37, January.
    6. Jichang Dong & Wei Dai & Ying Liu & Lean Yu & Jie Wang, 2019. "Forecasting Chinese Stock Market Prices using Baidu Search Index with a Learning-Based Data Collection Method," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(05), pages 1605-1629, September.
    7. U, JuHyok & Lu, PengYu & Kim, ChungSong & Ryu, UnSok & Pak, KyongSok, 2020. "A new LSTM based reversal point prediction method using upward/downward reversal point feature sets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Mioara, POPESCU, 2015. "Construction Of Economic Indicators Using Internet Searches," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 6(1), pages 25-31.
    9. Francesco Capozza & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Studying Information Acquisition in the Field: A Practical Guide and Review," CEBI working paper series 21-15, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    10. Tommaso Colussi & Ingo E. Isphording & Nico Pestel, 2021. "Minority Salience and Political Extremism," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 237-271, July.
    11. Kučerová, Zuzana & Pakši, Daniel & Koňařík, Vojtěch, 2024. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and attention: What drives european consumers’ inflation expectations?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).
    12. David W Carter & Scott Crosson & Christopher Liese, 2015. "Nowcasting Intraseasonal Recreational Fishing Harvest with Internet Search Volume," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-18, September.
    13. David H Chae & Sean Clouston & Mark L Hatzenbuehler & Michael R Kramer & Hannah L F Cooper & Sacoby M Wilson & Seth I Stephens-Davidowitz & Robert S Gold & Bruce G Link, 2015. "Association between an Internet-Based Measure of Area Racism and Black Mortality," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-12, April.
    14. Kamaladdin Fataliyev & Aneesh Chivukula & Mukesh Prasad & Wei Liu, 2021. "Stock Market Analysis with Text Data: A Review," Papers 2106.12985, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    15. C. Douglas Swearingen & Joseph T. Ripberger, 2014. "Google Insights and U.S. Senate Elections: Does Search Traffic Provide a Valid Measure of Public Attention to Political Candidates?," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 95(3), pages 882-893, September.
    16. Nathan, Max & Rosso, Anna, 2014. "Mapping information economy businesses with big data: findings from the UK," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60615, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Ishani Chaudhuri & Parthajit Kayal, 2022. "Predicting Power of Ticker Search Volume in Indian Stock Market," Working Papers 2022-214, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    18. Yang, Xin & Pan, Bing & Evans, James A. & Lv, Benfu, 2015. "Forecasting Chinese tourist volume with search engine data," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 386-397.
    19. Sansone, Dario, 2019. "Pink work: Same-sex marriage, employment and discrimination," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    20. Pulkit Sharma & Achut Manandhar & Patrick Thomson & Jacob Katuva & Robert Hope & David A. Clifton, 2019. "Combining Multi-Modal Statistics for Welfare Prediction Using Deep Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-15, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0188107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.