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Probit Models to Investigate Prevalence of Total Diagnosed and Undiagnosed Diabetes among Aged 45 Years or Older Adults in China

Author

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  • Minghui Yin
  • Balekouzou Augustin
  • Chang Shu
  • Tingting Qin
  • Ping Yin

Abstract

The aims of this study are to identify the most important predictors of total diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes and estimate the mean change in the predicted probability among aged 45+ adults in China. We used baseline data collected from 2011 wave of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) (n = 9,513). First, we estimated the prevalence of diagnosed, measured, total diagnosed, and undiagnosed diabetes. Second, we used probit models to determine whether individual attributes, socioeconomic characteristics and behavioral health factors, including smoking, alcohol consumption, obesity, central obesity, are associated with total diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes. We also consider other factors, including contact with medical system, hypertension and urban/rural settings. Third, we estimated average marginal effects of variables in probit models. Among Chinese people aged 45+, the prevalence of diagnosed, measured, total diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes were 5.8% (95%CI, 5.3%-6.3%), 14.7% (95%CI, 14.0%-15.4%), 17.0% (95%CI, 16.3%-17.7%), 11.3% (95%CI, 10.6%-12.0%), respectively. The probability of total diagnosed diabetes is 3.3% (95% CI, 1.2%-5.3%) and 10.2% (95% CI, 7.0%-13.5%) higher for overweight and obesity than normal BMI, 5.0% (95% CI, 3.0%-7.1%) higher for central obesity than normal waist circumference, 5.4% (95% CI, 3.7%-7.0%) higher for hypertensive than normotensive and 1.8% (95% CI, 0.8%- 2.7%) higher in urban areas than in rural areas, respectively. The probability of undiagnosed diabetes is 2.7% (95% CI, 1.2%-4.2%) and 7.2% (95% CI, 4.7%-9.6%) higher for overweight and obesity than normal BMI, 2.6% (95% CI, 0.9%-4.4%) higher for central obesity than normal waist circumference and 2.6% (95% CI, 1.2%-4.0%) higher for hypertensive than normotensive, respectively, and -1.5% (95% CI, -2.5% to -0.5%) lower for individuals who were in contact with the medical system. Greater focus on prevention of diabetes is necessary for obesity, central obesity, hypertensive and in urban areas for middle-aged and older in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Minghui Yin & Balekouzou Augustin & Chang Shu & Tingting Qin & Ping Yin, 2016. "Probit Models to Investigate Prevalence of Total Diagnosed and Undiagnosed Diabetes among Aged 45 Years or Older Adults in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-13, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0164481
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0164481
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xin Guo & Li Shen & Jing Dou & Yaogai Lv & Anning Zhang & Fanchao Shi & Zhiqiang Xue & Yaqin Yu & Lina Jin & Yan Yao, 2017. "Associations of Fasting Blood Glucose with Influencing Factors in Northeast China: A Quantile Regression Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-11, November.
    2. Chaozhou Mou & Minlan Xu & Juncheng Lyu, 2021. "Predictors of Undiagnosed Diabetes among Middle-Aged and Seniors in China: Application of Andersen’s Behavioral Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-9, August.

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