IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0109341.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Joint Probability Analysis of Extreme Precipitation and Storm Tide in a Coastal City under Changing Environment

Author

Listed:
  • Kui Xu
  • Chao Ma
  • Jijian Lian
  • Lingling Bin

Abstract

Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt’s tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05). The design joint return period (RP) of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Kui Xu & Chao Ma & Jijian Lian & Lingling Bin, 2014. "Joint Probability Analysis of Extreme Precipitation and Storm Tide in a Coastal City under Changing Environment," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(10), pages 1-11, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0109341
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0109341
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0109341
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0109341&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0109341?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicola Ranger & Stéphane Hallegatte & Sumana Bhattacharya & Murthy Bachu & Satya Priya & K. Dhore & Farhat Rafique & P. Mathur & Nicolas Naville & Fanny Henriet & Celine Herweijer & Sanjib Pohit & Jan, 2011. "An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 139-167, January.
    2. P. C. D. Milly & R. T. Wetherald & K. A. Dunne & T. L. Delworth, 2002. "Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 415(6871), pages 514-517, January.
    3. Shilong Piao & Philippe Ciais & Yao Huang & Zehao Shen & Shushi Peng & Junsheng Li & Liping Zhou & Hongyan Liu & Yuecun Ma & Yihui Ding & Pierre Friedlingstein & Chunzhen Liu & Kun Tan & Yongqiang Yu , 2010. "The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7311), pages 43-51, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Karamouz & Helia Farzaneh & Mehri Dolatshahi, 2020. "Margin of Safety Based Flood Reliability Evaluation of Wastewater Treatment Plants: Part 1 – Basic Concepts and Statistical Settings," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(2), pages 579-594, January.
    2. Shahid Latif & Slobodan P. Simonovic, 2023. "Trivariate Probabilistic Assessments of the Compound Flooding Events Using the 3-D Fully Nested Archimedean (FNA) Copula in the Semiparametric Distribution Setting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(4), pages 1641-1693, March.
    3. Hao Chen & Zongxue Xu & Ji Chen & Yang Liu & Peng Li, 2023. "Joint Risk Analysis of Extreme Rainfall and High Tide Level Based on Extreme Value Theory in Coastal Area," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-19, February.
    4. M. Karamouz & F. Fooladi Mahani, 2021. "DEM Uncertainty Based Coastal Flood Inundation Modeling Considering Water Quality Impacts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(10), pages 3083-3103, August.
    5. Yuming Huang & Yanjie Li & Min Liu & Liang Xiao & Fuwan Gan & Jian Jiao, 2022. "Uncertainty Analysis of Flood Control Design Under Multiple Floods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1175-1189, March.
    6. Shahid Latif & Slobodan P. Simonovic, 2022. "Nonparametric Approach to Copula Estimation in Compounding The Joint Impact of Storm Surge and Rainfall Events in Coastal Flood Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(14), pages 5599-5632, November.
    7. Hongshi Xu & Kui Xu & Lingling Bin & Jijian Lian & Chao Ma, 2018. "Joint Risk of Rainfall and Storm Surges during Typhoons in a Coastal City of Haidian Island, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-20, June.
    8. Jijian Lian & Hongshi Xu & Kui Xu & Chao Ma, 2017. "Optimal management of the flooding risk caused by the joint occurrence of extreme rainfall and high tide level in a coastal city," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(1), pages 183-200, October.
    9. Wenchao Qi & Chao Ma & Hongshi Xu & Zifan Chen & Kai Zhao & Hao Han, 2021. "A review on applications of urban flood models in flood mitigation strategies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 31-62, August.
    10. Chao Ma & Wenchao Qi & Hongshi Xu & Kai Zhao, 2022. "An integrated quantitative framework to assess the impacts of disaster-inducing factors on causing urban flood," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(3), pages 1903-1924, September.
    11. Yu-Ling Sun & Chun-Hua Zhang & Ying-Jie Lian & Jia-Min Zhao, 2022. "Exploring the Global Research Trends of Cities and Climate Change Based on a Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weili Duan & Bin He & Daniel Nover & Jingli Fan & Guishan Yang & Wen Chen & Huifang Meng & Chuanming Liu, 2016. "Floods and associated socioeconomic damages in China over the last century," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(1), pages 401-413, May.
    2. Yi He & Desmond Manful & Rachel Warren & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Timothy J. Osborn & Jeff Price & Rhosanna Jenkins & Craig Wallace & Dai Yamazaki, 2022. "Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-21, January.
    3. ChaoJun Gu & Yongqing Zhu & Renhua Li & He Yao & Xingmin Mu, 2021. "Effects of different soil and water conservation measures on hydrological extremes and flood processes in the Yanhe River, Loess Plateau, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 545-566, October.
    4. He, Liuyue & Xu, Zhenci & Wang, Sufen & Bao, Jianxia & Fan, Yunfei & Daccache, Andre, 2022. "Optimal crop planting pattern can be harmful to reach carbon neutrality: Evidence from food-energy-water-carbon nexus perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    5. Ding, Yimin & Wang, Weiguang & Song, Ruiming & Shao, Quanxi & Jiao, Xiyun & Xing, Wanqiu, 2017. "Modeling spatial and temporal variability of the impact of climate change on rice irrigation water requirements in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 89-101.
    6. Wenfeng Chi & Yuanyuan Zhao & Wenhui Kuang & Tao Pan & Tu Ba & Jinshen Zhao & Liang Jin & Sisi Wang, 2021. "Impact of Cropland Evolution on Soil Wind Erosion in Inner Mongolia of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-16, June.
    7. P. V. Timbadiya & K. M. Krishnamraju, 2023. "A 2D hydrodynamic model for river flood prediction in a coastal floodplain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(2), pages 1143-1165, January.
    8. Brian C. Thiede & Abbie Robinson & Clark Gray, 2024. "Climatic Variability and Internal Migration in Asia: Evidence from Big Microdata," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(2), pages 513-540, June.
    9. Zhongen Niu & Huimin Yan & Fang Liu, 2020. "Decreasing Cropping Intensity Dominated the Negative Trend of Cropland Productivity in Southern China in 2000–2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, December.
    10. Zhang, Fengtai & Xiao, Yuedong & Gao, Lei & Ma, Dalai & Su, Ruiqi & Yang, Qing, 2022. "How agricultural water use efficiency varies in China—A spatial-temporal analysis considering unexpected outputs," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    11. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2014. "Modeling the Role of Inventories and Heterogeneity in the Assessment of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 152-167, January.
    12. Kang, Shaozhong & Hao, Xinmei & Du, Taisheng & Tong, Ling & Su, Xiaoling & Lu, Hongna & Li, Xiaolin & Huo, Zailin & Li, Sien & Ding, Risheng, 2017. "Improving agricultural water productivity to ensure food security in China under changing environment: From research to practice," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 5-17.
    13. Zhihai Yang & Amin W. Mugera & Fan Zhang, 2016. "Investigating Yield Variability and Inefficiency in Rice Production: A Case Study in Central China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-11, August.
    14. Linfang Chen & Huanyu Sun & Shenghui Zhou & Shixing Jiao & Xiao Zhao & Jianmei Cheng, 2024. "Analysis of Resource Misallocation and Total Factor Productivity Losses in Green Agriculture: A Case Study of the North China Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-25, December.
    15. Sicong Wang & Changhai Qin & Yong Zhao & Jing Zhao & Yuping Han, 2023. "The Evolutionary Path of the Center of Gravity for Water Use, the Population, and the Economy, and Their Decomposed Contributions in China from 1965 to 2019," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-20, June.
    16. Surminski, Swenja & Eldridge, Jillian, 2015. "Flood insurance in England: an assessment of the current and newly proposed insurance scheme in the context of rising flood risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66256, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Yoro Diallo & Sébastien Marchand & Etienne Espagne, 2019. "Impacts of extreme events on technical efficiency in Vietnamese agriculture," CERDI Working papers halshs-02080285, HAL.
    18. Thiede, Brian C. & Robinson, Abbie & Gray, Clark, 2022. "Climatic Variability and Internal Migration in Asia: Evidence from Integrated Census and Survey Microdata," SocArXiv hxv35_v1, Center for Open Science.
    19. Berlemann, Michael, 2015. "Hurricane Risk, Happiness and Life Satisfaction. Some Empirical Evidence on the Indirect Effects of Natural Disasters," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113073, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Thiede, Brian C. & Robinson, Abbie & Gray, Clark, 2022. "Climatic Variability and Internal Migration in Asia: Evidence from Integrated Census and Survey Microdata," SocArXiv hxv35, Center for Open Science.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0109341. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.