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Joint Risk of Rainfall and Storm Surges during Typhoons in a Coastal City of Haidian Island, China

Author

Listed:
  • Hongshi Xu

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China)

  • Kui Xu

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China)

  • Lingling Bin

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China)

  • Jijian Lian

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China)

  • Chao Ma

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China)

Abstract

Public health risks from urban floods are a global concern. A typhoon is a devastating natural hazard that is often accompanied by heavy rainfall and high storm surges and causes serious floods in coastal cities. Affected by the same meteorological systems, typhoons, rainfall, and storm surges are three variables with significant correlations. In the study, the joint risk of rainfall and storm surges during typhoons was investigated based on principal component analysis, copula-based probability analysis, urban flood inundation model, and flood risk model methods. First, a typhoon was characterized by principal component analysis, integrating the maximum sustained wind (MSW), center pressure, and distance between the typhoon center and the study area. Following this, the Gumbel copula was selected as the best-fit copula function for the joint probability distribution of typhoons, rainfall, and storm surges. Finally, the impact of typhoons on the joint risk of rainfall and storm surges was investigated. The results indicate the following: (1) Typhoons can be well quantified by the principal component analysis method. (2) Ignoring the dependence between these flood drivers can inappropriately underestimate the flood risk in coastal regions. (3) The co-occurrence probability of rainfall and storm surges increases by at least 200% during typhoons. Therefore, coastal urban flood management should pay more attention to the joint impact of rainfall and storm surges on flood risk when a typhoon has occurred. (4) The expected annual damage is 0.82 million dollars when there is no typhoon, and it rises to 3.27 million dollars when typhoons have occurred. This indicates that typhoons greatly increase the flood risk in coastal zones. The obtained results may provide a scientific basis for urban flood risk assessment and management in the study area.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongshi Xu & Kui Xu & Lingling Bin & Jijian Lian & Chao Ma, 2018. "Joint Risk of Rainfall and Storm Surges during Typhoons in a Coastal City of Haidian Island, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-20, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:15:y:2018:i:7:p:1377-:d:155442
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wenchao Zhang & Wei Wang & Junfen Lin & Ying Zhang & Xiaopeng Shang & Xin Wang & Meilin Huang & Shike Liu & Wei Ma, 2017. "Perception, Knowledge and Behaviors Related to Typhoon: A Cross Sectional Study among Rural Residents in Zhejiang, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-12, May.
    2. Chaochao Li & Xiaotao Cheng & Na Li & Xiaohe Du & Qian Yu & Guangyuan Kan, 2016. "A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-18, August.
    3. Jijian Lian & Hongshi Xu & Kui Xu & Chao Ma, 2017. "Optimal management of the flooding risk caused by the joint occurrence of extreme rainfall and high tide level in a coastal city," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(1), pages 183-200, October.
    4. Wei Zhang & Tian Li, 2015. "The Influence of Objective Function and Acceptability Threshold on Uncertainty Assessment of an Urban Drainage Hydraulic Model with Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation Methodology," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 2059-2072, April.
    5. Sheng Dong & Chun-Shuo Jiao & Shan-Shan Tao, 2017. "Joint return probability analysis of wind speed and rainfall intensity in typhoon-affected sea area," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(3), pages 1193-1205, April.
    6. Kui Xu & Chao Ma & Jijian Lian & Lingling Bin, 2014. "Joint Probability Analysis of Extreme Precipitation and Storm Tide in a Coastal City under Changing Environment," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(10), pages 1-11, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hongshi Xu & Kui Xu & Tianye Wang & Wanjie Xue, 2022. "Investigating Flood Risks of Rainfall and Storm Tides Affected by the Parameter Estimation Coupling Bivariate Statistics and Hydrodynamic Models in the Coastal City," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-18, October.
    2. Kui Xu & Chenyue Wang & Lingling Bin, 2023. "Compound flood models in coastal areas: a review of methods and uncertainty analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 469-496, March.
    3. Hao Chen & Zongxue Xu & Ji Chen & Yang Liu & Peng Li, 2023. "Joint Risk Analysis of Extreme Rainfall and High Tide Level Based on Extreme Value Theory in Coastal Area," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-19, February.

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