Dynamics of typhoon characteristics over 3 decades: risks and resilience in coastal China

Global temperature rise warms sea surfaces and provides additional energy to storms. From January to September 2024, the global mean surface temperature reached 1.54 °C above the pre-industrial average, largely influenced by a warming El Niño event in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This contributed to abnormal atmospheric circulation and created favorable conditions for tropical cyclones. As a result, typhoon surge risk assessment is gaining prominence. We investigated the dynamics of typhoon activity from 1994 to 2023, focusing on associated risks and coastal China’s resilience. We utilized ArcGIS 10.8 and Gantt charts to simulate trends in typhoons and uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to model risk and resilience. The findings reveal a noticeable increase in the proportion of super typhoons (119) over the past decade, suggesting a rising frequency of high-intensity storms. Furthermore, the clustered timelines of typhoons during peak months (August–September) indicate that multiple typhoons are occurring within short intervals, potentially due to a more active typhoon basin. The Consistency Ratio (CR) values for the challenges and solutions derived from the pairwise matrices were 0.05 and 0.02, respectively. The findings indicate an overall trend of growing economic development, improved disaster preparedness, enhanced early warning systems, and effective mitigation measures along coastal China. However, while economic losses have increased, casualties have declined, reflecting improved disaster management that reduces loss of life but does not necessarily prevent property damage. This situation prompts a review of policies and models by governments, provincial authorities, and the international scientific community.