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Climate Change and the Future of California's Endemic Flora

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  • Scott R Loarie
  • Benjamin E Carter
  • Katharine Hayhoe
  • Sean McMahon
  • Richard Moe
  • Charles A Knight
  • David D Ackerly

Abstract

The flora of California, a global biodiversity hotspot, includes 2387 endemic plant taxa. With anticipated climate change, we project that up to 66% will experience >80% reductions in range size within a century. These results are comparable with other studies of fewer species or just samples of a region's endemics. Projected reductions depend on the magnitude of future emissions and on the ability of species to disperse from their current locations. California's varied terrain could cause species to move in very different directions, breaking up present-day floras. However, our projections also identify regions where species undergoing severe range reductions may persist. Protecting these potential future refugia and facilitating species dispersal will be essential to maintain biodiversity in the face of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott R Loarie & Benjamin E Carter & Katharine Hayhoe & Sean McMahon & Richard Moe & Charles A Knight & David D Ackerly, 2008. "Climate Change and the Future of California's Endemic Flora," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(6), pages 1-10, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0002502
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0002502
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Norman Myers & Russell A. Mittermeier & Cristina G. Mittermeier & Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca & Jennifer Kent, 2000. "Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities," Nature, Nature, vol. 403(6772), pages 853-858, February.
    2. John Harte & Annette Ostling & Jessica L. Green & Ann Kinzig, 2004. "Climate change and extinction risk," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(6995), pages 34-34, July.
    3. Chris D. Thomas & Alison Cameron & Rhys E. Green & Michel Bakkenes & Linda J. Beaumont & Yvonne C. Collingham & Barend F. N. Erasmus & Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira & Alan Grainger & Lee Hannah & Lesle, 2004. "Extinction risk from climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 427(6970), pages 145-148, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:plo:pone00:0083809 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Barham A. HamadAmin & Nabaz R. Khwarahm, 2023. "Mapping Impacts of Climate Change on the Distributions of Two Endemic Tree Species under Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios (SSP)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-25, March.
    3. repec:plo:pone00:0109053 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ali Uğur Özcan & Javier Velázquez & Víctor Rincón & Derya Gülçin & Kerim Çiçek, 2022. "Assessment of the Morphological Pattern of the Lebanon Cedar under Changing Climate: The Mediterranean Case," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, May.

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