IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pgph00/0000980.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quasi-experimental evaluation of national border closures on COVID-19 transmission

Author

Listed:
  • Mathieu J P Poirier
  • Susan Rogers Van Katwyk
  • Gigi Lin
  • Steven J Hoffman

Abstract

With over 200 pandemic threats emerging every year, the efficacy of closing national borders to control the transmission of disease in the first months of a pandemic remains a critically important question. Previous studies offer conflicting evidence for the potential effects of these closures on COVID-19 transmission and no study has yet empirically evaluated the global impact of border closures using quasi-experimental methods and real-world data. We triangulate results from interrupted time-series analysis, meta-regression, coarsened exact matching, and an extensive series of robustness checks to evaluate the effect of 166 countries’ national border closures on the global transmission of COVID-19. Total border closures banning non-essential travel from all countries and (to a lesser extent) targeted border closures banning travel from specific countries had some effect on temporarily slowing COVID-19 transmission in those countries that implemented them. In contrast to these country-level impacts, the global sum of targeted border closures implemented by February 5, 2020 was not sufficient to slow global COVID-19 transmission, but the sum of total border closures implemented by March 19, 2020 did achieve this effect. Country-level results were highly heterogeneous, with early implementation and border closures so broadly targeted that they resemble total border closures improving the likelihood of slowing the pandemic’s spread. Governments that can make productive use of extra preparation time and cannot feasibly implement less restrictive alternatives might consider enacting border closures. However, given their moderate and uncertain impacts and their significant harms, border closures are unlikely to be the best policy response for most countries and should only be deployed in rare circumstances and with great caution. All countries would benefit from global mechanisms to coordinate national decisions on border closures during pandemics.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathieu J P Poirier & Susan Rogers Van Katwyk & Gigi Lin & Steven J Hoffman, 2023. "Quasi-experimental evaluation of national border closures on COVID-19 transmission," PLOS Global Public Health, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(2), pages 1-15, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pgph00:0000980
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000980
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article?id=10.1371/journal.pgph.0000980
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pgph.0000980&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000980?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bertoni, Danilo & Curzi, Daniele & Aletti, Giacomo & Olper, Alessandro, 2020. "Estimating the effects of agri-environmental measures using difference-in-difference coarsened exact matching," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simpson, Katherine & Armsworth, Paul R. & Dallimer, Martin & Nthambi, Mary & de Vries, Frans P. & Hanley, Nick, 2023. "Improving the ecological and economic performance of agri-environment schemes: Payment by modelled results versus payment for actions," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Matthew C. LaFevor & Alexandra G. Ponette-González & Rebecca Larson & Leah M. Mungai, 2021. "Spatial Targeting of Agricultural Support Measures: Indicator-Based Assessment of Coverages and Leakages," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Adenuga, Adewale H. & Jack, Claire & Ashfield, Austen & Wallace, Michael, 2022. "Impact of Membership of Dairy Participatory Extension Group on Farm Income: An Application of a Difference-in-Differences Coarsened Exact Matching Approach," 96th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2022, K U Leuven, Belgium 321170, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    4. Tsakiridis, Andreas & O’Donoghue, Cathal & Ryan, Mary & Cullen, Paula & ÓhUallacháin, Daire & Sheridan, Helen & Stout, Jane, 2021. "Examining the relationship between farmer participation in an agri-environment scheme and the quantity and quality of semi-natural habitats on farms - An Irish case study," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315280, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Jianing Xu & Weidong Li, 2023. "High-Speed Rail and Industrial Agglomeration: Evidence from China’s Urban Agglomerations," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-18, August.
    6. Carmelo Díaz-Poblete & María Carmen García-Cortijo & Juan Sebastián Castillo-Valero, 2021. "Is the Greening Instrument a Valid Precedent for the New Green Architecture of the CAP? The Case of Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-11, May.
    7. Xiao, De & Yu, Fan & Guo, Chenhao, 2023. "The impact of China's pilot carbon ETS on the labor income share: Based on an empirical method of combining PSM with staggered DID," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    8. Amer Ait Sidhoum & Carolin Canessa & Johannes Sauer, 2023. "Effects of agri‐environment schemes on farm‐level eco‐efficiency measures: Empirical evidence from EU countries," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 551-569, June.
    9. Federico Antonioli & Simone Severini & Mauro Vigani, 2023. "Visa for competitiveness: foreign workforce and Italian dairy farms’ performance," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 50(1), pages 115-150.
    10. Yan Jin & Cornelis Gardebroek & Nico Heerink, 2024. "The impact of Chinese rice support policies on rice acreages," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 16(3), pages 705-719, June.
    11. Maldonado, Joana Elisa & De Witte, Kristof, 2021. "The impact of information provision to parents: Experimental evidence on student outcomes," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    12. Tsakiridis, Andreas & O’Donoghue, Cathal & Ryan, Mary & Cullen, Paula & Ó hUallacháin, Daire & Sheridan, Helen & Stout, Jane, 2022. "Examining the relationship between farmer participation in an agri-environment scheme and the quantity and quality of semi-natural habitats on Irish farms," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    13. Schaub, Sergei & Pfaff, Alexander & Bonev, Petyo, 2025. "Biodiversity and the Design of Result-based Payments: Evidence from Germany," Economics Working Paper Series 2502, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    14. Qiumei Li & Hayat Khan & Zuominyang Zhang & Ling Lin & Ke Huang, 2022. "The Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Corporate Excessive Debt Mechanism: Evidence from Difference-in-Difference Equation Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-19, December.
    15. Biedny, Christina & Whitacre, Brian E. & Van Leuven, Andrew J., 2024. "Do Gigabits Mean Business? “Ultra-Fast” broadband availability's effect on business births," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    16. Kabubo-Mariara, Jane & Machio, Phyllis Mumia & Njoroge, Michael Murigi & Chemengich, Margaret, 2023. "Links between firm registration and performance: Does it pay to register?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    17. Barreiro-Hurle, Jesus & Dessart, Francois J. & Rommel, Jens & Czajkowski, Mikołaj & Espinosa-Goded, Maria & Rodriguez-Entrena, Macario & Thomas, Fabian & Zagorska, Katarzyna, 2023. "Willing or complying? The delicate interplay between voluntary and mandatory interventions to promote farmers' environmental behavior," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    18. Boga, Rubén & Paül, Valerià, 2023. "‘Because of its size, it’s not worth it!’: The viability of small-scale geographical indication schemes," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    19. Christian Stetter & Philipp Mennig & Johannes Sauer, 2022. "Using Machine Learning to Identify Heterogeneous Impacts of Agri-Environment Schemes in the EU: A Case Study," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 49(4), pages 723-759.
    20. Uehleke, Reinhard & Petrick, Martin & Hüttel, Silke, 2022. "Evaluations of agri-environmental schemes based on observational farm data: The importance of covariate selection," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pgph00:0000980. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: globalpubhealth (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.