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Solar geoengineering and the chemtrails conspiracy on social media

Author

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  • Dustin Tingley

    (Harvard University)

  • Gernot Wagner

    (Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences & Harvard Kennedy School)

Abstract

Discourse on social media of solar geoengineering has been rapidly increasing over the past decade, in line with increased attention by the scientific community and low but increasing awareness among the general public. The topic has also found increased attention online. But unlike scientific discourse, a majority of online discussion focuses on the so-called chemtrails conspiracy theory, the widely debunked idea that airplanes are spraying a toxic mix of chemicals through contrails, with supposed goals ranging from weather to mind control. This paper presents the results of a nationally representative 1000-subject poll part of the 36,000-subject 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), and an analysis of the universe of social media mentions of geoengineering. The former shows ~ 10% of Americans declaring the chemtrails conspiracy as “completely” and a further ~ 20–30% as “somewhat” true, with no apparent difference by party affiliation or strength of partisanship. Conspiratorial views have accounted for ~ 60% of geoengineering discourse on social media over the past decade. Of that, Twitter has accounted for >90%, compared to ~ 75% of total geoengineering mentions. Further affinity analysis reveals a broad online community of conspiracy. Anonymity of social media appears to help its spread, so does the general ease of spreading unverified or outright false information. Online behavior has important real-world reverberations, with implications for climate science communication and policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Dustin Tingley & Gernot Wagner, 2017. "Solar geoengineering and the chemtrails conspiracy on social media," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 3(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:3:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-017-0014-3
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-017-0014-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hunt Allcott & Matthew Gentzkow, 2017. "Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election," NBER Working Papers 23089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hunt Allcott & Matthew Gentzkow, 2017. "Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 211-236, Spring.
    3. Naomi Oreskes & Erik M. Conway, 2010. "Defeating the merchants of doubt," Nature, Nature, vol. 465(7299), pages 686-687, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Toby Bolsen & Risa Palm & Russell E. Luke, 2023. "Public response to solar geoengineering: how media frames about stratospheric aerosol injection affect opinions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-21, August.
    2. Christine Merk & Gert Pönitzsch & Katrin Rehdanz, 2019. "Do climate engineering experts display moral-hazard behaviour?," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 231-243, February.
    3. Brian G. Southwell & J. Scott Babwah Brennen & Ryan Paquin & Vanessa Boudewyns & Jing Zeng, 2022. "Defining and Measuring Scientific Misinformation," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 700(1), pages 98-111, March.
    4. Rasmus Karlsson, 2021. "Learning in the Anthropocene," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-11, June.
    5. Aiste Dirzyte, 2023. "Exploring the Nexus between Conspiracy Beliefs and Creativity, Attitudes toward People, and Psychological Wellbeing: Insights from the 10th European Social Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-21, November.
    6. Christine Merk & Gernot Wagner, 2024. "Presenting balanced geoengineering information has little effect on mitigation engagement," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-17, January.

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