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Shanghai's Trade, China's Growth: Continuity, Recovery, and Change since the Opium Wars

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  • Wolfgang Keller
  • Ben Li
  • Carol H Shiue

Abstract

This paper provides an analysis of China's trade performance from the 1840s to the present. Its focus is on Shanghai, the world's largest port, which began direct trade relations with Western nations starting in 1843. The paper finds that Shanghai had, and continues to have, an important role in China's trade structure. Applying the well-known gravity equation of trade for Shanghai's treaty port period, the paper shows that this relationship fits today's actual trade quite well when projected into the modern period. Second, the foreign presence, as measured by foreign direct investment (FDI), in Shanghai is shown to be related not only to trade in the past, but also to trade today, which suggests that FDI is one of the sources of persistence in foreign trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Keller & Ben Li & Carol H Shiue, 2013. "Shanghai's Trade, China's Growth: Continuity, Recovery, and Change since the Opium Wars," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(2), pages 336-378, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:61:y:2013:i:2:p:336-378
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S.K. Bhutani, 2009. "China and India," India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, , vol. 65(4), pages 383-391, October.
    2. Markusen, James R., 1984. "Multinationals, multi-plant economies, and the gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 205-226, May.
    3. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448.
    4. G Ottaviano & Diego Puga, 1997. "Agglomeration in a global Economy: A Survey," CEP Discussion Papers dp0356, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2011. "Growing Like China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 196-233, February.
    6. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 451-471, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, Khalid & Bhattacharya, Mita & Qazi, Ahmer Qasim & Long, Wei, 2016. "Energy consumption in China and underlying factors in a changing landscape: Empirical evidence since the reform period," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 224-234.
    2. Rafael, Dobado-González & Alfredo, García-Hiernaux & David, Guerrero-Burbano, 2013. "West versus East: Early Globalization and the Great Divergence," MPRA Paper 48773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Keller, Wolfgang & Andres Santiago, Javier & Shiue, Carol H., 2017. "China's domestic trade during the Treaty-Port Era," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 26-43.
    4. MA, Ye & JONG, Herman de, 2016. "Unfolding the Turbulent Century: A Reconstruction of China's Economic Development, 1840-1912," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-29, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • N81 - Economic History - - Micro-Business History - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N83 - Economic History - - Micro-Business History - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N85 - Economic History - - Micro-Business History - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N95 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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