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Shanghai's Trade, China's Growth: Continuity, Recovery, and Change since the Opium Wars

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Keller
  • Ben Li
  • Carol H Shiue

Abstract

This paper provides an analysis of China's trade performance from the 1840s to the present. Its focus is on Shanghai, the world's largest port, which began direct trade relations with Western nations starting in 1843. The paper finds that Shanghai had, and continues to have, an important role in China's trade structure. Applying the well-known gravity equation of trade for Shanghai's treaty port period, the paper shows that this relationship fits today's actual trade quite well when projected into the modern period. Second, the foreign presence, as measured by foreign direct investment (FDI), in Shanghai is shown to be related not only to trade in the past, but also to trade today, which suggests that FDI is one of the sources of persistence in foreign trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Keller & Ben Li & Carol H Shiue, 2013. "Shanghai's Trade, China's Growth: Continuity, Recovery, and Change since the Opium Wars," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(2), pages 336-378, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:61:y:2013:i:2:p:336-378
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    Cited by:

    1. Alfaro, Laura & Bao, Cathy & Chen, Maggie & Hong, Junjie & Steinwender, Claudia, 2022. "Omnia Juncta in Uno: Foreign Powers and Trademark Protection in Shanghai's Concession Era," CEPR Discussion Papers 16987, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Cheng Yang, 2022. "A new estimate of Chinese male occupational structure during 1734–1898 by sector, sub‐sector pattern, and region," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1270-1313, November.
    3. Ahmed, Khalid & Bhattacharya, Mita & Qazi, Ahmer Qasim & Long, Wei, 2016. "Energy consumption in China and underlying factors in a changing landscape: Empirical evidence since the reform period," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 224-234.
    4. Loïc Charles & Guillaume Daudin, 2015. "Eighteenth-Century International Trade Statistics. Sources and Methods," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 7-36.
    5. Rafael Dobado González & Alfredo García Hiernaux & David Guerrero Burbano, 2013. "West versus East: Early globalization and thr great divergence [Oeste frente a Este: Globalización temprana y gran divergencia]," Documentos de trabajo de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales 13-08, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
    6. MA, Ye & JONG, Herman de, 2016. "Unfolding the Turbulent Century: A Reconstruction of China's Economic Development, 1840-1912," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-29, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. Laurent Didier & Pamina Koenig, 2019. "Has China replaced colonial trade?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(2), pages 199-226, May.
    8. Laura Alfaro & Cathy Bao & Maggie X. Chen & Junjie Hong & Claudia Steinwender, 2022. "Trademarks as Intellectual Property: Information Frictions, Firm Growth, and Competition," CESifo Working Paper Series 9548, CESifo.
    9. Yang, Junping & Zhang, Mengjie & Ballester-Miquel, José Carlos & Ribeiro-Navarrete, Samuel, 2022. "Exploring what drives entrepreneurs: Intergenerational differences between entrepreneurs born in the 1980s and 1990s," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    10. Lisha Mengge, 2024. "Foreign trade and economic performance in China, 1860–1911," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024 14, Stata Users Group.
    11. Keller, Wolfgang & Andres Santiago, Javier & Shiue, Carol H., 2017. "China's domestic trade during the Treaty-Port Era," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 26-43.
    12. Loren Brandt & Debin Ma & Thomas G. Rawski, 2014. "From Divergence to Convergence: Reevaluating the History behind China's Economic Boom," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 45-123, March.
    13. Brandt, Loren & Ma, Debin & Rawski, Thomas G., 2013. "From divergence to convergence: re-evaluating the history behind China’s economic boom," Economic History Working Papers 50816, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    14. Bo, Shiyu & Chen, Ting & Liu, Cong, 2022. "Trade shocks, industrial growth, and electrification in early 20th-century China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 732-749.
    15. Long, Cheryl & Murrell, Peter & Yang, Li, 2019. "Memories of colonial law: The inheritance of human capital and the location of joint ventures in early-reform China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • N81 - Economic History - - Micro-Business History - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N83 - Economic History - - Micro-Business History - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N85 - Economic History - - Micro-Business History - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N95 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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