IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/psewpa/halshs-01397801.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Has China Replaced Colonial Trade ?

Author

Listed:
  • Laurent Didier

    () (CEMOI - Centre d'Économie et de Management de l'Océan Indien - UR - Université de La Réunion)

  • Pamina Koenig

    () (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CREAM - Centre de Recherche en Economie Appliquée à la Mondialisation - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - IRIHS - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université)

Abstract

China is often suspected of taking over the extraordinary trade relationships that former colonies had within colonial empires. We detail the three reasons why China's trade flows with former colonies could exhibit unexpected levels after independence. Besides potential preferential bilateral relationships built after independence, the two expected determinants of trade flows are China's export capacity and the natural redirection caused by the increase in country pairs trade costs due to independence. We investigate and quantify the three reasons explaining the level of former colonies' trade flows with China. Using sequentially naive graphical representations and structural gravity equations, we show that methodological issues can be largely responsible for displaying and estimating abnormaly high trade levels between former colonies and China. We show that increased trade between these pairs of countries is the result of coinciding unilateral factors on each side which raise trade with all partners, instead of being driven by more intense bilateral preferences. We then measure the reorientation of trade flows from former colonies' metropoles towards China and show that independence has produced the expected redistribution: trade flows would be 15$\%$ lower with China, had former colonies not become independent.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Didier & Pamina Koenig, 2016. "Has China Replaced Colonial Trade ?," PSE Working Papers halshs-01397801, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-01397801
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01397801
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01397801/document
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maria Cipollina & Luca Salvatici, 2010. "Reciprocal Trade Agreements in Gravity Models: A Meta‐Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 63-80, February.
    2. Thomas Chaney, 2014. "The Network Structure of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3600-3634, November.
    3. Wolfgang Keller & Ben Li & Carol H Shiue, 2013. "Shanghai's Trade, China's Growth: Continuity, Recovery, and Change since the Opium Wars," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(2), pages 336-378, June.
    4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    5. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    6. Hsieh, Chang-Tai & Ossa, Ralph, 2016. "A global view of productivity growth in China," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 209-224.
    7. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry & Ries, John, 2010. "The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 1-14, May.
    8. James E. Anderson & Yoto V. Yotov, 2010. "The Changing Incidence of Geography," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2157-2186, December.
    9. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Feng, Michael, 2014. "Economic integration agreements and the margins of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 339-350.
    10. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 102-127, February.
    11. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Jing Zhang, 2014. "The Global Welfare Impact of China: Trade Integration and Technological Change," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 153-183, July.
    12. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 37-48, February.
    13. Volker Nitsch, 2007. "State Visits and International Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(12), pages 1797-1816, December.
    14. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
    15. Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2014. "China’s Great Convergence and Beyond," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 333-362, August.
    16. Antoine Berthou & Hélène Ehrhart, 2017. "Trade networks and colonial trade spillovers," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 891-923, September.
    17. Daniel Berger & William Easterly & Nathan Nunn & Shanker Satyanath, 2013. "Commercial Imperialism? Political Influence and Trade during the Cold War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 863-896, April.
    18. Baldwin, Richard, 2007. "Trade Effects of the Euro: a Comparison of Estimators," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 22, pages 780-818.
    19. Lavallée, Emmanuelle & Lochard, Julie, 2015. "The comparative effects of independence on trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 613-632.
    20. James E. Rauch, 2001. "Business and Social Networks in International Trade," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1177-1203, December.
    21. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February.
    22. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    multilateral resistance; China; gravity equation; bilateral effects; colonial trade;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F54 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Colonialism; Imperialism; Postcolonialism

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-01397801. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.