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Factores asociados al emprendimiento de migrantes colombianos retornados: una aproximación Bayesiana
[Factors associated with the entrepreneurship of returned Colombian migrants: a Bayesian approach]

Author

Listed:
  • Tovar Cuevas, José Rafael

    (Universidad del Valle (Santiago de Cali, Colombia))

  • Zúñiga Martínez, Claudia Lorena

    (Pontificia Universidad Javeriana (Santiago de Cali, Colombia))

  • Tovar Cuevas, Luis Miguel

    (Pontificia Universidad Javeriana (Santiago de Cali, Colombia))

Abstract

En este estudio se identifica un conjunto de características asociadas al hecho de que un migrante colombiano retornado se convierta en un emprendedor. El análisis se realizó con los datos recogidos en la encuesta Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) cuyo formulario fue modificado en el año 2012 (solo por ese año) con un conjunto de preguntas sobre emprendimiento a personas que habían retornado al país después de vivir fuera cierto tiempo. Se realizó la comparación entre las probabilidades de emprendimiento en dos regiones del país, Bogotá la capital, área de mayor desarrollo económico y financiero (n=204) y los departamentos de la Costa Caribe Colombiana, área de menor desarrollo industrial y mayor fortaleza turística (n=203). Los resultados fueron obtenidos utilizando métodos propios del paradigma Bayesiano de la Estadística. Se consideraron nueve distribuciones previas informativas construidas a partir de los datos observados (Empirical Bayes Methods) y se utilizó el factor de Bayes como criterio para seleccionar el modelo con mejor ajuste a los datos. De acuerdo con los resultados, los factores que afectan la probabilidad de que un migrante retornado sea emprendedor difieren entre regiones y están relacionados con la autoconfianza del individuo y su capacidad de prepararse para su inclusión en el sector productivo del país.

Suggested Citation

  • Tovar Cuevas, José Rafael & Zúñiga Martínez, Claudia Lorena & Tovar Cuevas, Luis Miguel, 2022. "Factores asociados al emprendimiento de migrantes colombianos retornados: una aproximación Bayesiana [Factors associated with the entrepreneurship of returned Colombian migrants: a Bayesian approach]," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 33(1), pages 408-438, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pab:rmcpee:v:33:y:2022:i:1:p:408-438
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.46661/revmetodoscuanteconempresa.5105
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marchetta, Francesca, 2012. "Return Migration and the Survival of Entrepreneurial Activities in Egypt," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 1999-2013.
    2. Luis Miguel Tovar Cuevas & María Teresa Victoria Paredes, 2013. "Migración internacional de retorno y emprendimiento: revisión de la literatura," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 15(29), pages 41-65, July-Dece.
    3. Wahba, Jackline & Zenou, Yves, 2012. "Out of sight, out of mind: Migration, entrepreneurship and social capital," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 890-903.
    4. Mancilla, Claudio & Viladomiu-Canela, Lourdes & Guallarte-Nuez, Carlos, 2010. "Emprendimiento, inmigrantes y municipios rurales: el caso de España," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(02), pages 1-22, December.
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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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