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Heigh-ho, heigh-ho, it’s off to work we go – the Fourth Industrial Revolution and thoughts on the future of work in Australia

Author

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  • Lisa Denny

    (University of Tasmania)

Abstract

The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) suggests large-scale transformation of the Australian economy with predictions of ‘technological unemployment’. Combined with other significant economic, demographic and social shifts, it is inevitable that future of work will change. This paper applies industrial revolution scholarship to contribute new empirical insights into the transformation of Australia’s economy between 2006 and 2016 and evaluate Australia’s progress in the 4IR. The paper also introduces gender as a largely missing component in industrial revolution scholarship. Adapting the shift-share method of analysis to ABS Census data, the paper attributes the change in the share of employment and industry restructure over the decade to four factors: national economic growth, industry (re)structure, employment composition, and within industry employment composition. The paper finds that while job growth occurred in the decade to 2016, it was largely driven by a national growth effect associated with increasing consumption and the industry effect associated with the rise of the services sectors and the changing social organisation of care, rather than innovation and technological advancements. Job destruction, on the other hand, is evident in industry sectors associated with the 4IR; the replacement of jobs by automation and artificial intelligence to increase competitiveness and productivity. To transition to the phase of job creation in an industrial revolution, Australia needs socio-political intervention to address four key issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisa Denny, 2019. "Heigh-ho, heigh-ho, it’s off to work we go – the Fourth Industrial Revolution and thoughts on the future of work in Australia," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 22(2), pages 117-142.
    • Handle: RePEc:ozl:journl:v:22:y:2019:i:2:p:117-142
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Coelli & Jeff Borland, 2016. "Job Polarisation and Earnings Inequality in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(296), pages 1-27, March.
    2. Valeria CIRILLO, 2018. "Job polarization in European industries," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 157(1), pages 39-63, March.
    3. Rebecca Cassells & Alan S Duncan & Astghik Mavisakalyan & John Phillimore & Richard Seymour & Yashar Tarverdi, 2018. "Future of Work in Australia: Preparing for tomorrow’s world," Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre Report series FS06, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    future of work; Fourth Industrial Revolution; job destruction; job creation; educational attainment structure (EAS); Australia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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