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Revisiting the Risk-Neutral Approach to Optimal Policyholder Behavior: A Study of Withdrawal Guarantees in Variable Annuities

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Listed:
  • Thorsten Moenig
  • Daniel Bauer

Abstract

Policyholder exercise behavior presents an important risk factor for pricing Variable Annuities. However, approaches presented in the literature—building on value-maximizing strategies akin to pricing American options—do not square with observed price and exercise patterns for popular withdrawal guarantees. We show that including taxes into the valuation closes this gap between theory and practice. In particular, we develop a subjective risk-neutral valuation methodology that takes into consideration differences in the tax structure between investment opportunities. We demonstrate that accounting for tax advantages significantly affects the value of the guarantees and produces results that are in line with empirical patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Thorsten Moenig & Daniel Bauer, 2016. "Revisiting the Risk-Neutral Approach to Optimal Policyholder Behavior: A Study of Withdrawal Guarantees in Variable Annuities," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 759-794.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:20:y:2016:i:2:p:759-794.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Horneff, Vanya & Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Rogalla, Ralph, 2015. "Optimal life cycle portfolio choice with variable annuities offering liquidity and investment downside protection," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 91-107.
    2. John Y. Campbell, 2013. "Mortgage Market Design," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-33.
    3. Jeffrey R. Brown & James M. Poterba, 2004. "Household Demand for Variable Annuities," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2004-8, Center for Retirement Research, revised Mar 2004.
    4. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2015. "A Model of Mortgage Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1495-1554, August.
    5. Gabriella Piscopo, 2010. "Withdrawal Strategy For Guaranteed Lifelong Withdrawal Benefit Option," Perspectives of Innovation in Economics and Business (PIEB), Prague Development Center, vol. 5(2), pages 47-49, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thorsten Moenig, 2021. "Efficient valuation of variable annuity portfolios with dynamic programming," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(4), pages 1023-1055, December.
    2. Milevsky, Moshe A. & Salisbury, Thomas S., 2022. "Refundable income annuities: Feasibility of money-back guarantees," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 175-193.
    3. Anne Mackay & Marie-Claude Vachon, 2023. "On an Optimal Stopping Problem with a Discontinuous Reward," Papers 2311.03538, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    4. Zhiyi Shen, 2022. "Out-of-Model Adjustments of Variable Annuities," Papers 2208.12838, arXiv.org.
    5. Thorsten Moenig, 2022. "It's RILA time: An introduction to registered index‐linked annuities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(2), pages 339-369, June.
    6. Pavel V. Shevchenko & Xiaolin Luo, 2016. "A Unified Pricing of Variable Annuity Guarantees under the Optimal Stochastic Control Framework," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-31, July.
    7. Daniel Bauer & Thorsten Moenig, 2023. "Cheaper by the bundle: The interaction of frictions and option exercise in variable annuities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(2), pages 459-486, June.
    8. Moenig, Thorsten, 2021. "Variable annuities: Market incompleteness and policyholder behavior," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 63-78.
    9. Andrea Molent, 2019. "Taxation of a GMWB Variable Annuity in a Stochastic Interest Rate Model," Papers 1901.11296, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.

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