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Energy Transition Metals: Bottleneck for Net-Zero Emissions?

Author

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  • Lukas Boer
  • Andrea Pescatori
  • Martin Stuermer

Abstract

The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Are these metals a bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities, and study the price impact of the transition in a structural scenario analysis. Prices of these four metals would reach previous historical peaks but for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario, potentially derailing the energy transition. Their production value would rise nearly four-fold to USD 11 trillion for the period 2021–2040. These four metals markets alone could become as important to the global economy as the oil market.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas Boer & Andrea Pescatori & Martin Stuermer, 2024. "Energy Transition Metals: Bottleneck for Net-Zero Emissions?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 200-229.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:22:y:2024:i:1:p:200-229.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeea/jvad039
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea & Ojea-Ferreiro, Javier, 2024. "Tail risks of energy transition metal prices for commodity prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Andrea Bastianin & Luca Rossini & Alessandra Testa, 2026. "Industrial Metal Supply Shocks and Heterogeneous Macroeconomic Effects: Evidence from Copper," Working Papers 2026.02, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Andrea Bastianin & Xiao Li & Luqman Shamsudin, 2025. "Forecasting the Volatility of Energy Transition Metals," Papers 2501.16069, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
    4. Bastianin, Andrea & Casoli, Chiara & Galeotti, Marzio, 2023. "The connectedness of Energy Transition Metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Naegler, Tobias & Rauner, Sebastian & Dirnaichner, Alois & Jochem, Patrick & Schlosser, Steffen & Luderer, Gunnar, 2025. "Raw material demand and geopolitical risk in carbon-neutral futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    6. Marco Taboga, 2024. "The potential macroeconomic relevance of critical materials: some preliminary evidence," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 897, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Capucine Nobletz, 2024. "Critical Raw Materials Index -CRMI," Working Papers hal-04759077, HAL.
    8. Ordu-Akkaya, Beyza Mina & Özyıldırım, Süheyla, 2025. "Commodity dependence: Providing information on emerging market CDS spreads when economic indicators are absent," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Robert J.R. Elliott & Gavin D. J. Harper & Viet Nguyen-Tien, 2026. "The economics of the electric vehicle transition: demand, supply chains, and innovation," CEP Discussion Papers dp2164, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Elias Hasler, 2025. "Assessing the Global Impact of EU Carbon Pricing: Economic and Climate Spillovers," Working Papers 2025-01, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    11. Andrea Bastianin & Luca Rossini & Marco Zoso, 2026. "Quantifying Demand Shocks in the Green and Digital Transition," Papers 2606.27842, arXiv.org.
    12. Lukas Berend & Jan Pruser, 2025. "Sharpening Identification in Large Structural VARs Using Narrative Restrictions," Papers 2505.19244, arXiv.org, revised May 2026.
    13. Doroshenko, Lyubov & De Crescenzo, Ivan & Mastroeni, Loretta & Mazzoccoli, Alessandro, 2025. "Geopolitical risks, critical materials and energy transition: Insights from wavelet analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    14. Romain Capliez & Valérie Mignon & Carl Grekou & Emmanuel Hache, 2026. "What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices? A Historical Perspective on Demand and Supply Dynamics," Working Papers hal-05664063, HAL.
    15. Kim, Jaden & Jaumotte, Florence & Panton, Augustus J. & Schwerhoff, Gregor, 2025. "Energy security and the green transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    16. Eugenie Dugoua & Jacob Moscona, 2025. "The Economics of Climate Innovation: Technology, Climate Policy, and the Clean Energy Transition," CESifo Working Paper Series 12267, CESifo.
    17. Viet Nguyen-Tien, 2026. "Input uncertainty and firm performance: evidence from critical minerals," CEP Discussion Papers dp2197, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    18. Eugenie Dugoua & Jacob Moscona, 2025. "The Economics of climate innovation: technology, climate policy, and the clean energy transition," CEP Discussion Papers dp2135, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    19. Attílio, Luccas Assis, 2025. "Impact of critical mineral prices on energy transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PD).

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