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Futures Prices in Supply Analysis: Are Instrumental Variables Necessary?

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  • Nathan P. Hendricks
  • Joseph P. Janzen
  • Aaron Smith

Abstract

Crop yield shocks are partially predictable-high planting-time futures prices have tended to indicate that yield would be below trend. As a result, regressions of total caloric production on futures prices produce estimates of the supply elasticity that are biased downwards by up to 75%. Regressions of the world's growing area on futures prices have a much smaller bias of about 20% because although yield shocks are partially predictable, this predictability has a relatively small effect on land allocation. We argue that the preferred method for estimating the crop supply elasticity is to use regressions of growing area on futures prices and to include the realized yield shock as a control variable. An alternative method for bias reduction is to use instrumental variables (IVs). We show that the marginal contribution of an IV to bias reduction is small-IVs are not necessary for futures prices in supply analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan P. Hendricks & Joseph P. Janzen & Aaron Smith, 2015. "Futures Prices in Supply Analysis: Are Instrumental Variables Necessary?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 22-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:97:y:2015:i:1:p:22-39.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ajae/aau062
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Legrand, 2023. "War in Ukraine: The rational “wait‐and‐see” mode of global food markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 626-644, June.
    2. Christophe Gouel, 2020. "The Value of Public Information in Storable Commodity Markets: Application to the Soybean Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 846-865, May.
    3. Fabio Santeramo, 2015. "A cursory review of the identification strategies," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-8, December.
    4. Md Zabid Iqbal & Bruce A. Babcock, 2018. "Global growing‐area elasticities of key agricultural crops estimated using dynamic heterogeneous panel methods," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(6), pages 681-690, November.
    5. Nicolas Legrand & Christophe Gouel, 2022. "The Role of Storage in Commodity Markets: Indirect Inference Based on Grains Data," Working Papers hal-03809825, HAL.
    6. Nakelse, Tebila & Dalton, Timothy J. & Hendricks, Nathan P. & Hodjo, Manzamasso, 2018. "Are smallholder farmers better or worse off from an increase in the international price of cereals?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 213-223.
    7. Dalheimer, Bernhard & Fiankor, Dela-Dem Doe, 2022. "Food Production Shocks and Agricultural Supply Elasticities in Sub-Saharan Africa," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322168, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Hyunseok Kim & GianCarlo Moschini, 2018. "The Dynamics of Supply: U.S. Corn and Soybeans in the Biofuel Era," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 94(4), pages 593-613.
    9. Iqbal, Md Zabid & Babcock, Bruce, 2016. "Transmission of Global Commodity Prices to Domestic Producer Prices: A Comprehensive Analysis," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236285, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Stigler, Matthieu M., 2018. "Supply response at the field-level: disentangling area and yield effects," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274343, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Guilherme DePaula, 2018. "Technology Adoption and the Agricultural Supply Response Function," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 18-wp582, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    12. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Di Gioia, Leonardo & Lamonaca, Emilia, 2021. "Price responsiveness of supply and acreage in the EU vegetable oil markets: Policy implications," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    13. Oladipo S. Obembe & Nathan P. Hendricks, 2022. "Marginal cost of carbon sequestration through forest afforestation of agricultural land in the southeastern United States," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(S1), pages 59-73, November.
    14. Hendricks, Nathan P. & Haroon Bin Farrukh, Syed, 2018. "A Global Analysis of Crop Supply Response to Domestic Prices," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274334, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Nicholas J. Pates & Nathan P. Hendricks, 2021. "Fields from Afar: Evidence of Heterogeneity in United States Corn Rotational Response from Remote Sensing Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1759-1782, October.
    16. DePaula, Guilherme M., 2018. "Relational Contracts, Technology Adoption, and the Agricultural Supply Response Function," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274383, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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