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Farmland: Is It Currently Priced as an Attractive Investment?

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  • Timothy G. Baker
  • Michael D. Boehlje
  • Michael R. Langemeier

Abstract

Farmland prices have risen dramatically in recent years, which has attracted interest from the broader investment community. At the same time, concern is being expressed regarding another bubble in farmland prices. This paper studies and compares the farmland price to cash rent ratio (P/rent) with the price to earnings (P/E) ratio of stocks. We find that the farmland P/rent ratio has reached historical highs and is currently at the level of the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 during the tech bubble. Data from 1911 to 2012 are used to estimate the beta of farmland, a measure of the risk that farmland adds to a diversified portfolio. The beta is found to be very low over this period. Farmland returns are also regressed against expected and unexpected inflation, and we find that farmland moves relatively close to one-to-one with inflation. We also report 10- and 20-year holding period returns for farmland and find that the relationship between return and the cyclically adjusted P/rent ratio is strongly negative. Moreover, the current cyclically adjusted P/rent ratio is extremely high, indicating a reason for caution when investors are considering farmland purchases.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy G. Baker & Michael D. Boehlje & Michael R. Langemeier, 2014. "Farmland: Is It Currently Priced as an Attractive Investment?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1321-1333.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:96:y:2014:i:5:p:1321-1333.
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    1. Scott H. Irwin & D. Lynn Forster & Bruce J. Sherrick, 1988. "Returns to Farm Real Estate Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(3), pages 580-587.
    2. Allen M. Featherstone & Timothy G. Baker, 1987. "An Examination of Farm Sector Real Asset Dynamics: 1910–85," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(3), pages 532-546.
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    2. Richard T. Melstrom, 2021. "The Effect of Land Use Restrictions Protecting Endangered Species on Agricultural Land Values," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(1), pages 162-184, January.
    3. Philippe Jeanneaux & Yann Desjeux & Geoffroy Enjolras & Laure Latruffe, 2022. "Farm valuation: A comparison of methods for French farms," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 786-809, October.
    4. Cord-Friedrich von Hobe & Marius Michels & Oliver Musshoff, 2021. "German Farmers’ Perspectives on Price Drivers in Agricultural Land Rental Markets—A Combination of a Systematic Literature Review and Survey Results," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, February.
    5. Noumir, Ashraf & Langemeier, Michael, 2020. "Farmland Investment: A Portfolio Perspective," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2020.
    6. Noumir, Ashraf & Langemeier, Michael, 2022. "Risk and return of heterogenous farmland locations and qualities," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 25(4), September.
    7. repec:ags:aaea22:335557 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jauernig, Johanna & Brosig, Stephan & Hüttel, Silke, 2023. "Profession and residency matter: Farmers' preferences for farmland price regulation in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 74(3), pages 816-834.
    9. Stokes, Jeff & Jansen, Jim, 2018. "The Economics of the Capitalization Rate for Farmland," Cornhusker Economics 307070, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    10. Keller, Andrew J. & Boland, Michael A. & Petty, Scott A., 2022. "The Growing Use of Alternative Farmland Ownership Methods in the U.S," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2022.
    11. Langemeier, Michael & Fang, Xiaoyi & Yeager, Elizabeth, 2020. "Relative Profitability and Risk of Kansas Farms," International Journal of Agricultural Management, Institute of Agricultural Management, vol. 9, July.
    12. Keller, Andrew J. & Boland, Michael A. & Petty, Scott A., 2022. "An Historical Overview of Farmland Ownership and the Rise of the Dynasty Trust," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2022.
    13. B. James Deaton & Chad Lawley, 2022. "A survey of literature examining farmland prices: A Canadian focus," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 70(2), pages 95-121, June.
    14. Onegina, Viktoriya & Vitkovskyi, Yurii, 2020. "Інвестиції Та Земельна Реформа В Сільському Господарстві В Україні," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 6(4), December.
    15. Pinto, Allan & Griffin, Terry W., 2022. "Detecting bubbles via single time-series variable: applying spatial specification tests to farmland values," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322534, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Emma Bruno & Rosalia Castellano & Gennaro Punzo & Luca Salvati, 2023. "Towards diverging land prices in agricultural districts? Evidence from Italy before and after the great crisis," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 69(3), pages 119-127.

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