IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ora/journl/v1y2012i1p47-53.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Possible Trade Effects Of The Next European Union Enlargement

Author

Listed:
  • Nedelescu-Ionescu Daniela

    (Academia de Studii Economice Bucuresti, Relatii Economice Internationale)

  • Rujan Ovidiu

    (Academia de Studii Economice Bucuresti, Relatii Economice Internationale)

Abstract

The European Union next enlargement will constitute a significant qualitative change in the structure of the current Union, as the accession of the Western Balkan countries and of Turkey in particular will bring a brand new set of economic problems. It is expected that this enlargement to have a considerable effect for the new entrants, as well as for the European Union as a whole.\\r\\nConsidering some of the aspects raised by a new extension, this article aims to observe the trade impact of a new enlargement with the membership of the Western Balkan countries and Turkey, as this new growth is expected to have a considerable effect for the new entrants and for the European Union as a whole.\\r\\nThis study is based on the compare of the potential trade creation effects with the trade diversion effects resulting from the removal of trade restrictions for Western Balkan countries and Turkey and the European Union, by using the revealed comparative advantage index.\\r\\nThe analyze objective was to estimate the degree of trade creation and trade diversion outcome on the EU countries when Western Balkan countries and Turkey are included into the Union market.\\r\\nThe obtained results suggest that the export structures differ significantly among Western Balkan countries and Turkey and the European Union. Based on the revealed comparative advantage indexes, the authors would expect an intra-regional trade creation effect, but also we expect a risk for the Eastern European countries trade with European Union, especially as a result of Turkey\\\\\\\'s accession into the European markets without any trade barriers.\\r\\nAs far as trade creation and trade diversion effects are concerned, they observed that Western Balkan countries and Turkey, probably, do not change the European Union position significantly because of their lower trade volume comparing with the one of the EU-27.

Suggested Citation

  • Nedelescu-Ionescu Daniela & Rujan Ovidiu, 2012. "Possible Trade Effects Of The Next European Union Enlargement," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 47-53, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ora:journl:v:1:y:2012:i:1:p:47-53
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro/volume/2012/n1/005.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Under NAFTA," NBER Working Papers 7429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Baldwin, Richard E, 1992. "Measurable Dynamic Gains from Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 162-174, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jose Asturias & Manuel García-Santana & Roberto Ramos, 2019. "Competition and the Welfare Gains from Transportation Infrastructure: Evidence from the Golden Quadrilateral of India," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(6), pages 1881-1940.
    2. Seyed Komail Tayebi & Sanaz Younespour, 2012. "The Effect of Trade Openness on Environmental Quality: Evidence from Iran's Trade Relations with the Selected Countries of the Different Blocks," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 17(2), pages 19-40, spring.
    3. Asci, Serhat & Seale, James L. & Onel, Gulcan & VanSickle, John J., 2016. "U.S. and Mexican Tomatoes: Perceptions and Implications of the Renegotiated Suspension Agreement," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(1), pages 1-23, January.
    4. Richard Pomfret, 2003. "Trade and Exchange Rate Policies in Formerly Centrally Planned Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 585-612, April.
    5. Lucian Cernat, 2003. "Assessing South–South Regional Integration: Same Issues, Many Metrics," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 21, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    6. Festus Ebo Turkson, 2012. "Trade Agreements and Bilateral Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa: Estimating the Trade Effects of the EU-ACP PTA and RTAs," Discussion Papers 12/07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    7. Lucas Bretschger, 2003. "Growth in a Globalised Economy: The Effects of Capital Taxes and Tax Competition," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 03/24, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    8. Philipp Heimberger, 2022. "Does economic globalisation promote economic growth? A meta‐analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(6), pages 1690-1712, June.
    9. Steve Dowrick, 1994. "Openness and Growth," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe & Jacqueline Dwyer (ed.),International Intergration of the Australian Economy, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Tomasz Brodzicki, 2005. "Econometric Analysis of Impact of Relative Location on the Growth Effects of Economic Integration. The case of the EU," Working Papers of Economics of European Integration Division 0603, The Univeristy of Gdansk, Faculty of Economics, Economics of European Integration Division, revised Jan 2006.
    11. Lucian Cernat, 2001. "ASSESSING REGIONAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS: ARE SOUTH–SOUTH RTAs MORE TRADE DIVERTING?," International Trade 0109001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Baldwin, Richard E. & Forslid, Rikard, 2000. "Trade liberalisation and endogenous growth: A q-theory approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 497-517, April.
    13. Francois, Joseph & Bradley McDonald, 1996. "Liberalization and Capital Accumulation in the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 310, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    14. Deardorff, Alan V., 2013. "Growth or decline of comparative advantage," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 12-18.
    15. John Romalis, 2007. "NAFTA's and CUSFTA's Impact on International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 416-435, August.
    16. C. F. Bach & S. E. Frandsen & H. G. Jensen, 2000. "Agricultural and Economy‐Wide Effects of European Enlargement: Modelling the Common Agricultural Policy," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 162-180, May.
    17. Mr. Enzo Croce & Mr. V. Hugo Juan-Ramon & Mr. Feng Zhu, 2004. "Performance of Western Hemisphere Trading Blocs: A Cost-Corrected Gravity Approach," IMF Working Papers 2004/109, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Gouranga Gopal Das & Soamiely Andriamananjara, 2006. "Hub-and-Spokes Free Trade Agreements in the Presence of Technology Spillovers: An Application to the Western Hemisphere," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(1), pages 33-66, April.
    19. Alessandria, George & Choi, Horag & Ruhl, Kim J., 2021. "Trade adjustment dynamics and the welfare gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    20. Fr餩ric Laurin, 2012. "Trade and regional growth in Spain: panel cointegration in a small sample," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 435-447, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU enlargement; trade creation (TC); trade diversion (TD); revealed comparative advantage (RCA); economic integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ora:journl:v:1:y:2012:i:1:p:47-53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catalin ZMOLE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feoraro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.