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Understanding the Nexus Between Imports, Growth, Export and Foreign Debt Dynamics of an Emerging Market: The Case of Turkiye

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  • Huseyin Guvenoglu, Ahmed Yusuf Sarihan

    (University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria)

Abstract

In economic research, the trade deficit in developing countries has consistently been a critical and chronic issue. The examination of imports, which is the primary cause of the trade deficit, is of great importance in this regard. This study has a goal to identify the determinants of imports. Türkiye, as a country that has been grappling with the challenges of being classified as a developing nation for years, has consistently experienced imports surpassing exports. For developing countries like Türkiye, debts and economic growth are as important as the concepts of trade deficit and imports. This study aims to examine the effects of industrial production, the private sector’s external debt trend, and exports as proxies for growth on Türkiye’s imports. Time series data covering from January 2005 to December 2023 was used in the study. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method is utilized to identify cointegration among variables, followed by causality analyses employing the Toda-Yamamoto method to enhance the research findings. The results revealed that independent variables are cointegrated with imports. Additionally, production, exports, and debts are identified as Granger causes of imports. These results are of critical importance in demonstrating that Türkiye’s exports and production are also dependent on imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Huseyin Guvenoglu, Ahmed Yusuf Sarihan, 2025. "Understanding the Nexus Between Imports, Growth, Export and Foreign Debt Dynamics of an Emerging Market: The Case of Turkiye," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 1095-1118, Desember.
    • Handle: RePEc:nwe:eajour:y:2025:i:4:p:1095-1118
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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