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What if beta is not stable? Applying the Kalman filter to risk estimates of top US companies over the long time horizon

Author

Listed:
  • Ewa Feder-Sempach

    (University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, Department of International Finance and Investment)

  • Piotr Szczepocki

    (University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, Department of Statistical Methods)

  • Wiesław Dębski

    (University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology)

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to examine the Kalman approach to estimate the time-varying CAPM beta on the US stock market over the long time horizon of thirty-one years. We investigate the beta estimates on the basis of three specifications: random walk (RW), mean-reverting process (MR), and random coefficient of the beta parameter (RC) for companies listed on NYSE and NASDAQ in the period 1990–2021. We examine the prognostic power of beta estimates and ranked the results according to criteria of forecast accuracy. In terms of the adopted criteria, the estimation of the beta parameter assuming its variability in time proved to be better than the OLS, LAD and ROLS methods of the Sharpe model. We can conclude that the Kalman filter approach with the assumption of a random coefficient (RC) or mean-reversion (MR) for the CAPM beta parameter gives the best results.

Suggested Citation

  • Ewa Feder-Sempach & Piotr Szczepocki & Wiesław Dębski, 2023. "What if beta is not stable? Applying the Kalman filter to risk estimates of top US companies over the long time horizon," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(1), pages 25-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:54:y:2023:i:1:p:25-44
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    rate of return; beta parameter; time-varying model; Kalman filter; US stock market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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